Quick rebound necessary

If Barbados is to recover quickly from COVID-19 a lot will depend on the actions of Government.

And for those to be effective, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus Professor Justin Robinson said they need to be “timely, targeted and temporary”.

He made the comments this morning while speaking during a webinar organized by the Cave Hill School of Business (CHSB) on the topic Planning Now and For The Future – Economic and Financial Outlook.

Robinson, who also serves as the chief executive officer of the CHSB, explained that the island’s economic resurgence hinged on how fast health authorities were able to bring COVID-19 under control as well as Government’s interventions.

“Really the depth of the recession and the speed of the rebound are really going to be driven on one hand by health factors and how we are able to contain the virus spread in terms of what is the quality of the public health response and the capacity to bring the virus under control.

“…The other factor then is the nature of the Government’s interventions, because one of the real concerns you have as a policymaker is that because you shut down for a health crisis when that health crisis passes then you should be able to rebound quickly,” the professor contended.

“In terms of the nature of the responses from Government, I want to suggest that they should be guided by three general principles. They should be timely because Governments needs to move fast in a crisis. The speed of the response is critical then you don’t lose productive capacity.

“It should also be targeted because Governments in the Caribbean only have so much money to help address this and it needs to be spent in the areas of greatest impact and need. It should be temporary so that when the crisis ends that you can roll back that spending otherwise you create structural deficit and debt problems.”

Robinson said any money used should first be spent on public health measures such as building up the island’s healthcare capacity, testing capabilities and the entire public health environment.

He also contended that households needed to be incentivized.

“How will you convince tourists that your airport is a safe place to come through and that if they come here and get sick that they can get the treatment.

“I also want to suggest that assistance be focused around households first. Money that the Government gives to households will naturally flow into the hands of businesses,” Robinson explained.

“Money directed at businesses might not necessarily get to households in the same way. However, some businesses are going to be particularly vulnerable and affected so then the state needs to target them to minimize the corporate bankruptcies…”
randybennett@barbadostoday.bb