#BTEditorial – The gathering perfect storm of coronavirus and cyclones

In five days, the Atlantic hurricane season will officially start, and given the events of the last three years and the predictions of expert meteorologists, we must indeed hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

On April 2, the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project revealed its projections for the 2020 season. The group, led by Dr Phil Klotzbach, predicted 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. A major hurricane is Category 3 or higher (115-plus-mph winds) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

This forecast is above the 30-year average (1981 to 2010) of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The figure was derived from the numbers of Atlantic Basin named storms (those that attain at least tropical or subtropical storm strength), hurricanes and hurricanes of Category 3 or higher intensity forecast by Colorado State University compared to the 30-year average (1981 to 2010) and totals from the 2019 season.

“We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity,” Dr Klotzbach said.

In the Caribbean, we have seen significant destruction from hurricanes that are growing stronger every year owing to climate change. Barbados encountered some of the high winds and heavy rains associated with Harvey, Irma, Maria, Kirk and Dorian over the last three years, thankfully with no widespread damage, but some of our neighbours further north are still trying to pick up the pieces from the destruction wrought when those hurricanes hit them at full Category 5 strength.

Now we have another crisis on our hands with the COVID-19 pandemic, which means a new variable will be added to the disaster mitigation process. We already know water-borne diseases can emerge after natural disasters, but if a major disaster comes, we will be forced to consider how to manage storm shelters in the current era of social distancing.

Over the past week, the world caught a glimpse of what we might face when Cyclone Ampham hit Bangladesh and southern India. reported: “While some shelters were being kept only half full, because of concerns about social distancing, others were wall-to-wall with people”.

And in India, there were fewer shelters available than for past storms. Hundreds were repurposed two weeks before the cyclone was even on India’s radar screens, and turned into COVID-19 quarantine centres.

In Nedhuali, a village on India’s coast, police officers moved from mud house to mud house with folded hands, urging residents to get to the emergency shelters. But many villagers refused, saying they were afraid of becoming ill.

“We are fighting a war on two fronts,” police officer Rajesh Pandit was quoted as saying. “First to evacuate people and then to make sure that they don’t catch the infection.”

Bangladesh has more than 4,000 dedicated cyclone shelters. On top of that, the authorities cleared out schools and government buildings to house more than two million people who are expected to evacuate.”

In Barbados, the majority of our hurricane shelters are schools and churches which have been closed for the last ten weeks owing to our national shutdown. While one can argue the majority of the storms in recent years have come later in the season, from September onward, the season is of course highly unpredictable. Also, while countries around the world are gradually reopening their businesses and borders, we are still not out of the woods where this virus is concerned and there is no guarantee it will clear up by the end of November when the hurricane season officially ends.

Over the last two seasons, one or two Barbadians made their way to shelters, but if the situation is a lot worse, more numbers will have to find refuge at the various facilities around the island. Danielle Skeete of the Department of Emergency Management gave this assurance: “In this COVID-19 environment we are revisiting the shelters in terms of their capacity because we will have to make some changes owing to the social distancing requirements. We will also be taking the temperatures of anyone coming to the shelters, and along with their other personal effects, those people will have to walk with their masks as well”.

Naturally, sanitising protocols will also be observed and we hope that the District Emergency Organisations and members of the Roving Response Team will have the necessary personal protective gear as they go out into the communities before, during or after any incidents. We have done well in containing the spread of COVID-19 so far; let us strengthen our disaster management activities even as storm clouds slowly gather.