Flash Flood Warning in effect for Barbados

The Barbados Meteorological Services continues to closely monitor the progress of an area of disturbed weather which is currently affecting the island. The system is moving westward near 20 to 25 mph. A reconnaissance aircraft investigated the system this afternoon found it rather difficult to find a closed circulation.

Current Situation:
Convection associated with the system during the course of the afternoon hasn’t changed much on satellite imagery. However, scattered deep convective clusters continue to persist mainly on the western side of the system. The system remains elongated with a distinctive northeast through southwest orientation which is creating a challenge in forecasting where along the elongated circulation the system will consolidate its center. Furthermore, as with developing systems of this nature, it would not be surprising if there are multiple centers as it becomes better organized. There are presently no tropical storm watches or warnings in effect for Barbados, however some moderate to heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds will continue to affect Barbados tonight and into Wednesday.

Intensity Forecast:
As the system maintains its westward motion, some slow but gradual development is forecast and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours. This system posses no threat to Barbados as it relates to tropical storm-force winds.

Track Forecast:
There hasn’t been any significant change in the forecast track from the previous 12:30 pm statement. There is still currently good agreement on the feature passing to the north of Barbados later tonight and into early Wednesday morning.

Key Messages:
Rainfall accumulations of 25mm to 50mm (1 to 2 inches) have already being reported across some sections of the island during the past few hours. There is the expectation of a further 50mm to 75mm (2 to 3 inches) with isolated higher amounts as this system continues to traverse the area. In addition, a flash-flood warning and a small-craft warning is in effect from 6PM today 28th July, 2020.