Barbados ‘to lose hundreds of millions’ to climate change – World Bank

Climate change will cause major financial losses in Barbados and present several risks to the island’s infrastructure, a new World Bank report says as it lays out grim prospects for the island in the grip of global warming.

The report – 360 Degrees Resilience: A Guide to Prepare the Caribbean for a New Generation of Shocks, estimates that Barbados could experience average annual loss of $207 million (US$103.5 million) or 0.74 per cent of GDP due to natural hazards.

It estimates that beach nourishment costs for the island could reach between $47.2 million (US$23.6 million) and $236 million (US$118 million), assuming no additional adaptation action is required.

The cost of retrofitting existing infrastructure assets that are exposed to hazards could range between 0.3 per cent and 1.1 per cent of 2019 gross domestic product (GDP), according to the World Bank.

It points out that while the probability of occurrence for extreme heat, wildfire, urban flooding and river flooding were low, the risk for coastal flooding, hurricane, landslide, earthquake and tsunami were “medium”.

The two-year research report, which was released on Wednesday at an online seminar, predicts that climate change impacts on Barbados by 2050 could result in an 18 per cent loss in agricultural yield and an increase of about 32 days in annual extreme heat days.

It says 0.4 per cent of hotels on the island would experience beach loss under a moderate climate change scenario and 0.1 per cent of people would be exposed to coastal flooding.

The publication also points out that the island is at “medium” risk of agricultural land exposure. It notes that for flood depths of over one meter, Barbados is among the countries that sees a bigger increase in the share of people exposed than in the total population.

The 403-page publication says Barbados is among countries in the region where “almost all primary roads are exposed to hurricane wind”. However, pointing out that the costliest hazards for roads are landslides, it adds that Barbados is among countries with low exposure to landslide susceptibility.

The document also indicates that the country was among those with bridges that are exposed to hurricane winds and were at risk of seismic activity; the power plant is exposed to earthquakes and the country is vulnerable to port disruption since it only has one.

Further dissecting the risk indicators, it warns of water scarcity, saying the risk in this area is “high” and that mitigation measures should be taken.

On the other hand, Barbados is leading the region when it comes to access to information and communications technology (ICT) and global comparison of innovation. However, the report also highlights the fact that Barbados was among countries that have not passed freedom of information legislation into law.

It also points out that Barbados has an overall score of 55.5 out of 100 when it comes to the ease of doing business, making it an “emerging” country in this area.

It says the country is “nascent” when it comes to human capital and skills for building resilience, adding that while there has been some progress in the education system, it lacks inclusion and application of climate change in the curriculum and human capital development for resilience.

The World Bank report notes that Barbados has the highest insurance penetration as a percentage of GDP, while indicating that the insurance take-up among tourism firms is about 66 per cent and that about 41 per cent of tourism firms on the island have a business continuity plan in place,

The document says the percentage of firms in Barbados having ownership of backup infrastructure is 57 per cent for water tanks, 46 per cent (generators) and 20 per cent (solar power).

It also highlights the financial sector’s connection with other sectors, which it says makes it vulnerable to shocks, adding that the country is among others that have a high concentration of exports, making it vulnerable to external shocks.

The poverty rate in Barbados is “low” at around 17.2 per cent, based on 2016 data, according to the report.
marlonmadden@barbadostoday.bb