Momentum with ruling party, opposition readiness in doubt- political scientist

Government’s decision to call an early election is a clear indication that tougher times may be on the horizon as the country braces for the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic hardship that is likely to follow.

This is the view of political pollster Peter Wickham, who, though philosophically opposed to early elections, believes the controversial move will significantly improve Government’s chances of a favourable result in the face of opposition “unreadiness”.

Meanwhile, retired University of the West Indies Political Science lecturer, Dr George Belle, believes the decision is indicative of Government’s inability to fulfill previous election promises due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Mia Mottley, in a surprise address to the nation, said citizens would go to the polls to elect a new government on January 19, 2022, citing the need for the country to “unite around a common cause” as one of her main motivations.

Hours after the announcement, Wickham declared that the election “couldn’t come at a worse time for opposition forces”. But he also explained that the Prime Minister was facing two choices if she wanted to give her troops the best chance at victory— either call it this winter season or over the same period next year, when employment levels and overall economic activity are expected to be highest.

“I think the fact that she’s going now conveys the impression that she doesn’t really think the situation is going to be that good later, which is consistent with what a lot of people are saying. That is, we’ll have a short winter tourist season and we’ll probably have a long, hard year, and she thinks that her chances are better now than at the end of 2022,” Wickham told Barbados TODAY.

The pollster admitted that he has been conducting early research, the results of which he could not publicly disclose except to say that public sentiment does not favour the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), which is perhaps Mottley’s most significant opponent.

According to Wickham, the election will be heavily decided on Government’s perceived handling of the COVID-19 situation and related social and economic challenges.

“I have not seen anything to suggest to me that the opinion on the Democratic Labour Party has shifted tremendously during this period and even if the opinion of the Government has diminished somewhat, the fact is that there is no countervailing support for the DLP, and in a two-party system you need to have one and the other working in tandem and right now there is only one horse going around the track,” he said.

Wickham admitted, however, that the implications of a low voter turnout, such as occurred in 2013, could cast a shadow of doubt on projected outcomes. The pollster said this would be especially critical if those who participate in the vote are hell-bent on appointing a viable opposition, in light of the now-dissolved 29-1 Parliament.

Conversely, Dr Belle described the snap election as an “unusual” development given that political leaders usually want to use the full term of office to achieve their stated policy objectives. He believes the pandemic has significantly disrupted this.

“In other words, there is a two-year impact on policy implementation that would have been projected from the last election. I think that obviously has played a big part in Ms Mottley’s judgment and she is therefore suggesting that a number of her plans have been frustrated by the pandemic and that she is of the belief that she needs a fair amount of time to implement policies and the only way that that can be achieved is by a new mandate,” he explained.

As stated in a previous Barbados TODAY interview, Dr Belle believes the creation of a viable opposition will hinge very heavily on the performance of individual politicians who are fairly assessed on their ability to serve the interests of their constituents.

“I think that there may be a few individual cases where the [BLP] candidate went in on the basis of the massive swing in the 2018 election and they have not shown themselves to be particularly politically competent or interested, and those persons would probably have to make a greater effort to defend themselves,” said the political scientist.

On the question of early elections, Wickham described the phenomenon as a “hallmark” of the Westminster system of governance, but one which gives the Prime Minister an “unfair advantage”. However, he noted that there is an international trend toward fixed-term elections, which is characteristic of the United States of America’s system.

“Certainly, when the constitutional reform discussions come up, it is one of the issues that I will be raising, but I can’t say it’s an infringement on democracy when our democracy has been built around the idea that the Prime Minister has the right to call an early election,” said Wickham.

Elections would have been constitutionally due in 2023.

kareemsmith@barbadostoday.bb