PM’s election timing ‘not driven by world events’, says Wickham

Political scientist and pollster Peter Wickham on Monday dismissed speculation that Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s decision to call an early general election was influenced by international developments, describing such claims as “absolute nonsense”.

Wickham told Barbados TODAY that Mottley’s intention to go to the polls early had been evident for months, long before global events entered the discussion.

He said: “I’ve been hearing that suggestion being made by people about this whole idea of international [influence]… that’s nonsense. The prime minister’s interest in calling an early election was known from just after Crop Over last year.”

He noted that Mottley had previously called an election three years ahead of schedule and said the idea that she was reacting to international events, including developments involving US president Donald Trump, was unfounded.

“The idea that Prime Minister Mottley is responding to some global event . . . I think is absolute nonsense,” Wickham said. “The reality is that she had been considering an early election and she’s basically done now what pretty much everyone expected her to do.”

Wickham added that if global instability had been a factor, it would more likely have delayed the election than accelerated it.

“My question would have been whether those events may have caused her to delay the process further until things settle,” he said, referring to concerns following recent regional tensions involving Venezuela. “But for all intents and purposes, we knew that she has been on a trajectory towards early election for quite some time.”

Turning to the campaign itself, Wickham said crime and the cost of living continue to dominate voter concerns, both in Barbados and elsewhere.

“It’s two things — crime and the cost of living — and I think that that has generally been the reality in terms of all the elections,” he said, citing recent polls and contests in St Vincent, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States.

While acknowledging localised frustrations such as road conditions and water supply in St Lucy, Wickham said the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) had correctly identified crime and the cost of living as the dominant themes during the St James North by-election.

However, he cautioned against assuming public dissatisfaction would automatically translate into votes against the governing Barbados Labour Party (BLP).

“The mistake that people are making is that they assume that because a government is in office and the two issues are crime and the cost of living, that people will automatically vote against government on that basis… it doesn’t work that way,” he said.

Instead, Wickham argued, voters would judge whether the opposition was better equipped to govern.

“We have problems with those things, but do we think that the opposition is better able to deliver us the promised land than the government? I think that that is clearly not the case.”

On key battlegrounds, Wickham said constituencies where the DLP performed best in the last election would usually be ones to watch, but changes in candidates had reshaped the political landscape.

St Philip North had effectively reverted to a “regular seat” following the departure of Michael Lashley, while St John remained significant because of its leadership role within the DLP, he said.

“St John was a seat that has historically done very well for the Democratic Labour Party,” Wickham said. “My eyes are also on St John because of the leadership factor, and that’s something that we also have to look at.”

Wickham also predicted that voter turnout might appear higher this election due to a cleaner register following the removal of deceased voters, rather than greater enthusiasm.

“That is not necessarily an indication that more people are gonna vote,” he cautioned, adding that voter apathy has tended to hurt the DLP more than the BLP in past contests.

Political scientist Devaron Bruce said both major parties were likely to focus on familiar “bread-and-butter” issues during the campaign.

“The Democratic Labour Party will focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, employment — those everyday issues,” Bruce said. “The Barbados Labour Party, I suspect, will defend their record on those issues, but also present the fact that there is more to be done.”

While the government may have performed well at the macroeconomic level, many Barbadians felt disconnected from the results, he suggested.

“Many Barbadians feel as though government policy has not touched them in the way that they would want,” he said.

As a result, Bruce predicted that this election’s turnout could mirror 2022 levels, or fall even lower.

“Governments lose support over time, and this support unfortunately is not going to translate into support for the DLP,” he said. “What you will likely have would be people staying home.”