The Barbados Meteorological Services is continuing to closely monitor an area of low pressure centred near 12N 39.5W at 11:00 AM today.
This feature is associated with a tropical wave about 1355 miles or 2180 kilometers to the east of Barbados. The system has continued to show a slow improvement in organization over the past 12 to 24 hours and a tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow.
The system is forecast to track west-northwestward near 15 mph (25 km/h) over the next few days and is forecast to pass well north of Barbados on Friday 14, August 2020.
Conditions are somewhat favorable for some slow development of this system over the next 48 hours. Mid-level dry air is currently eroding the deep convection over the eastern and southeastern sections of the system, exposing the center of circulation to the southeast of the deep convection. By late Wednesday into Thursday numerical guidance suggest that there should be more readily available moisture for the system and thus increasing the chance of intensification. By Friday, southwesterly wind shear is expected to significantly impact the system structure resulting in weakening as it nears the northern Leewards.