It was Winston Churchill who cautioned leaders they should never allow a good crisis to go to waste. And the COVID-19 pandemic has certainly provided enough crisis scenarios to last us a lifetime. For certain, some leaders will be crushed by the weight of the challenges caused by the global pandemic, while others will be made stronger because they chose to create lemonade from the deeply soured lemons presented to them.
As we prepare ourselves for this uncertain final quarter of the year, many are desperately seeking a definitive word on what can be expected. Unfortunately, 2020 has been a forecaster’s nightmare. They just know it was vastly different from anything we have experienced and its long shadow is expected to follow us into 2021.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recently published World Economic Outlook stressed that the global economy was climbing out from “the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April”. However, the multilateral institution which has provided billions of dollars in support to struggling economies, said: “With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.”
In the near term, the IMF has suggested that global growth could be around −4.4 per cent in 2020, while global growth is projected at 5.2 per cent next year. That sounds like good news at least for next year. At the same time, we should not get too caught up in the numbers because down on the ground, life is expected to remain extremely difficult for those who live pay cheque to pay cheque.
According to the IMF analysts, people who rely on daily wage labour and are outside the formal safety net and faced sudden income losses when restrictions were imposed, will continue to find it tough going.
A positive outcome with vaccine trials will certainly speed up the chances of a speedier return to economic growth. However, the world has been warned: “The risk of worse growth outcomes than projected remains sizable. If the virus resurges, progress on treatments and vaccines is slower than anticipated, or countries’ access to them remains unequal, economic activity could be lower than expected, with renewed social distancing and tighter lockdowns.
“Considering the severity of the recession and the possible withdrawal of emergency support in some countries, rising bankruptcies could compound job and income losses. Deteriorating financial sentiment could trigger a sudden stop in new lending (or failure to roll over existing debt) to vulnerable economies.”
But we in Barbados, despite the gloom that has been cast by COVID-19 have sought vigorously to make the best of what is arguable a really bad situation.
The much hailed Barbados Welcome Stamp is now being viewed as one of most creative and sustainable ways for the island to maximize the resources that it has to help sustain this economy that has been so badly battered by the effects of the pandemic on global economic activity.
It has been the result of this country’s determination to thoughtfully and maturely manage this disease that has allowed us to offer ourselves as an ideal host for those well-to-do global citizens who wish to escape for 12 months to a sane place that treats COVID-19 as a real disease with real consequences.
And so the comments on Wednesday from local real estate mogul Sir Paul Altman that he was now seeing a wave of high-value visitors arriving here to utilize the 12-month visa programme that has made October an unlikely favourable month for the battered tourism sector.
Sir Paul, addressing a webinar titled Why High Net Worth Individuals & Families Should Consider Investing in Barbados said many of these long stay visitors are so pleased with the warmth of Barbadians, the orderly society and the amenities available, that they are asking about the purchase of second homes.
Sir Paul says this kind of investment would not have been realized at this time were it not for COVID-19. We know the road to recovery is going to be long but we as a people must remain steadfast, committed to the resurgence of our economy and make good lemonade from these COVID lemons.
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