Regional forecasters on Wednesday predicted 17 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, seven of which are likely to become hurricanes and four of those becoming major storms.
But the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) said the “boxing game” between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, as well as the Saharan dust over the Atlantic, would determine the level of tropical cyclone activity.
“The Atlantic hurricane season outlook [is] close to normal,” CIMH climatologist Dr Cédric Van Meerbeeck, told the 2023 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) in Jamaica.
“There’s just a tiny, tiny, tiny bit of chance that we’re gonna get a very active season. It’s more likely that it is going to be close to normal.”
He said the season is highly likely to be normal because of the “boxing game” in which the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean is bringing down storm activity, whereas the warm Atlantic temperatures will try to drive up storm activity.
“So, if they fight together, the result is a tie. Essentially, that’s what we’re saying,” Van Meerbeeck said, noting that the hurricane season forecasts improve as the season progresses.
Noting that last year regional forecasters had expected an active season but this did not materialise, he added: “From the second of July until the end of August, there was no single storm in the Atlantic. And that is because we had a lot of Saharan dust coming over from Africa.”
Van Meerbeeck said forecasters cannot predict Saharan dust way in advance.
“We can predict the occurrence of Saharan dust up to about two weeks in advance confidently, but not three months, not six months. So that’s a caveat of our forecast,” he said.
(CMC/BT)
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