Opposition politics, reform and upgrades

Opposition parties, by their nature, are expected to offer vigorous pushback to the government in office. Such was the nature of the relationship when the current administration was in opposition, and so, a similar approach by the opposing Democratic Labour Party (DLP) is to be expected.

As Opposition Leader, Mia Amor Mottley, from 2008 to 2010 and then again between 2013 and 2018, was known for her sharp acumen and ability to connect, while being a fierce political force.

Opposition politics is not for the meek but for those who have the resilience and grit to take on the governing party when it has access to the power and privileges that come with holding political office.

History will recall that Prime Minister Mottley confronted deep internal divisions within the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) when the majority of the opposition parliamentarians expressed a lack of confidence in her leadership and endorsed Prime Minister Owen Arthur as the person to lead them in 2010.

As we have underscored, Mottley demonstrated that she was not a political snowflake but that she was up to the challenge, remaining committed to the BLP and eventually regaining her position as Leader of the Opposition in 2013.

We offer this background to remind Barbadians that infighting and shenanigans in opposition politics are more the rule than the exception. It is true that the conflicts within the DLP have been so vicious, so public, and so embarrassingly comical at times, that inspiring confidence will be a gargantuan task.

Given the debacle that is occurring in the United States at this time, people around the world are acknowledging the value of having vibrant opposition political parties that can act as a bulwark against any abuses of power or government overreach.

However, there are some occasions when opposition parties must walk a delicate line between fulfilling their roles as watchdogs for the ordinary man and what people might dismiss as opposing simply for the sake of opposing.

Such a critique could be levelled at the current Opposition Leader over the party’s response to news that international ratings agency, Moody’s, had upgraded Barbados’ long-term issuer ratings from B3 to B2, while retaining the stable outlook.

According to the agency, the improved rating reflected the island’s “track record of fiscal consolidation, with sustained primary surpluses and a narrowing fiscal deficit” that placed the country’s debt “on a firm downward trajectory”.

Furthermore, Moody’s lauded the government for its bold institutional and structural reforms that have helped to improve the fiscal situation confronting the island. They outlined that the measures adopted by the government, which streamlined several institutions, helped to “limit the risk of fiscal slippage even when faced with external shocks”.

In the eyes of the analysts at Moody’s, this situation reflected well on the “strength of institutions and governance”.

On the other hand, while the global ratings institution upgraded Barbados’ rating, the country is still some way off its former investment A-grade status, and citizens will be eager to know the grading treatment that will be determined by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.

As one analyst noted, while the economic reforms and improved fiscal metrics are promising, the official “return” to investment grade status depends on these agencies’ methodologies and their subsequent evaluations. In practice, if the current fiscal trends continue as projected, many analysts believe that Barbados is on a credible path to not only sustaining enhanced economic health but potentially regaining a fully robust investment grade rating.

Opposition Leader Ralph Thorne, some argued, could have allowed the good news from Moody’s to rest. Though he was within his right to remind citizens that the improved macro statistics may not be reflecting the economic trials many are feeling on the ground, the upgrade by Moody’s was a reason for celebration.

Of course, the fluidity of the global economic and political circumstances could mean that things can change on a sixpence. As a result, this is not the time to be so engrossed in this win that we forget how vulnerable and exposed we are to global shifts and economic shocks.

We note Moody’s expression of fear about downside risk to growth and investment this year as well as their expectation that the government would continue to “rely mainly on concessional external borrowing from multilateral development banks to meet its external financing needs”. The level of foreign borrowing remains a deep concern to average Barbadians because they know it can only be repaid in foreign dollars.