Political analysts: Mottley leading BLP to next poll further deepens Dems’ crisis

Mia Mottley’s confirmation that she will lead the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) into the next general election has solidified her status as the most dominant figure in modern Barbadian politics and intensified the crisis of relevance facing the opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP), according to political analysts.

Though they say her announcement was not entirely unexpected, it effectively removes any lingering speculation about succession within the BLP and reinforces the party’s political stability. But more critically, it raises urgent questions about the DLP’s capacity to contest an election, particularly after being soundly beaten in the last two general elections, and more recently, last week’s St James North by-election.

Political scientist and pollster Peter Wickham told Barbados TODAY that Mottley’s decision underscores her continued command of the political landscape. He noted that despite past indications that she might step down – amid the personal toll of the pandemic and her brother Warren’s death – Mottley appears to have recalibrated her perspective.

He said: “I think that with the benefit of a few years to think about things and things have settled down, her perspective has changed, so I’m not entirely surprised, but I do believe that ultimately she will want to make an exit that’s somewhat similar to that of Keith Rowley or PJ Patterson.”

Peter Wickham. (FP)

The move, however, spells deep trouble for the DLP, which has lost every seat in Parliament in two consecutive general elections – in 2018 and 2022 – an unprecedented collapse in Barbadian political history.

“The lesson in the last election was the fact that the Barbarous Labour Party has an outstanding leader and the leadership in the Democratic Labour Party is yet to resonate. I guess that has also inspired her to think that look, you know, maybe this is something we can do,” Wickham explained. 

“I think the DLP continues to have serious structural issues that it needs to address. I think the fact that the Mia Mottley is coming back means that the imperative is even greater. But I’m fairly convinced based on recent episodes, and certainly based on the reaction to the last election, is that the Dems are going to wake up after the next election is called, in pretty much the same situation that they are in now.”

Devaron Bruce. (FP)

The DLP’s state, both Wickham and fellow political scientist Devaron Bruce argue, is one of fundamental disrepair, with no sign that the party has learned lessons from its devastating electoral defeat.

“One could argue that a political party that loses 62 elections, a political party that hasn’t won an election since 2013, would be concerned, but it doesn’t appear as though the Dems are flustered,” Wickham said. “I listened to Freundel Stuart, the other night, and you know Freundel Stuart is like, you know, political parties lose elections and they will win. If you take that kind of nonchalant approach, then you’re probably gonna be losing for a while longer. I don’t believe they understand the gravity [of the situation].” 

Bruce agreed, pointing to what he framed as a crisis of leadership within the DLP. He dismissed current political leader Ralph Thorne as an interim figure, elevated by circumstance rather than vision.

He said: “I don’t think Ralph Thorne was ever a serious political leader to consider for the Democratic Labour Party for several reasons. He was a response to a circumstance that was happening to the Democratic Labour Party…he was not a natural leader of the Democratic Labour Party . He simply came around by moving from one side of the aisle to the next side of the aisle and Democratic Party [body] made him the political leader, but that’s only for the time being. I don’t see him having any longstanding impact on the national space or the Democratic Labour Party to be honest.”

The lack of a coherent ideology, vision, or even a credible alternative to Mottley’s governance model has left the DLP adrift, Bruce explained.

Wickham also challenged the narrative that Barbadians are desperate for a strong opposition, suggesting that voters have repeatedly chosen to reject the DLP’s current brand of politics.

He said: “I get the impression that the public commentators have overstated the importance of an opposition to Barbadians. Barbadians voted for not having an opposition in 2018; they did so with their eyes wide open, the election was called early, which provided an opportunity to give an opposition in DLP, and Barbados did not give an opposition then either. My sense is that if Barbadians have refused to give the DLP a seat in Parliament twice, we understand the nature of what we’re doing and we are obviously comfortable with it. 

“I do believe that the presence of an opposition also helps the government to stay on its toes, but it is clear that Barbadians don’t seem to feel that it’s that important. I think Barbadians are quite happy with the choice that they have made and the choice that we have.”

With the prime minister confirming her candidacy for a third term, attention will turn to how both parties prepare for the upcoming campaign. For the BLP, it appears to be business as usual, according to Bruce.

He said: “I think really what you have is a continuation of the status quo. You had Prime Minister Mottley as the political leader and prime minister for the last seven years…her dominance politically both at the national level and within the party will continue, so the status quo in essence remains the same. Now what you have is a circumstance where the Barbados Labour Party is doing a bit of succession planning and preparing itself for a general election, and that is part and parcel of the success that she has had as the most successful electoral leader in the history of Barbados.” 

shamarblunt@barbadostoday.bb