#BTColumn – The Mottley strategy

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author(s) do not represent the official position of Barbados TODAY.

by Angelo Lascelles

Prime Minister Mia Mottley is by no means a stranger to politics and political strategy, having been in the “belly of the beast” of politics from the 1980s, learning at the feet of many great political strategists and political “animals” who helped to shape her perspective on the best approaches to ensure success at the party, constituency and national levels.

Her recent successes in the 2018 and 2022 general elections, despite protestations by some that this was due to a low voter turnout, should be a wakeup call for the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) that it must act swiftly to get its affairs in order so as not to face another smashing defeat from the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) with Mia Mottley as leader or mentor.

It must be established that as it stands, the Barbados Labour Party has 10 constituencies that have traditionally shown favour to the party even in the darkest days of a change of government, namely, St. Peter, St Andrew, St. Joseph, St. James North, St. Thomas, St. George North, St. Michael North, St. Michael North East, St. Michael South East and Christ Church West.

What we have also seen is that in instances where what could be regarded as a strong BLP seat is lost during a change of government election, it often returns to the fold after one term, as we saw with St. James Central, the City of Bridgetown and St. George South.

Particularly with the latter two, the BLP lost them in the 1986 and 2008 change of government elections and retook them in 1991 and 2013 after being held by the DLP for one term. It is therefore safe to say that the Barbados Labour Party has a significant amount of core seats to rely on in an election to ensure either a strong government or equally a strong opposition depending on the outcome of the election.

It must be noted here however that this does not suggest that the remaining seats are strong Democratic Labour Party seats. Indeed, it must be appreciated that the majority of the remaining seats are swing seats which move with the national tide for or against a particular political party and as such are the deciding seats in any general election.

Recognising this reality, what we have seen is Prime Minister Mottley and the Barbados Larbour Party engineering a strategic solidification of support in seats that are not traditionally favourable to the party especially in St. John, St. Lucy, St. Michael South Central and St. Michael South.

The impact of this is a national strengthening of support for the party which could result in future Democratic Labour Party governments having slim and unsustainable majorities, with the Barbados Labour Party providing a threatening opposition.

This is not to suggest however that future Democractic Labour Party governments will not be able to acquire second terms but rather that if their electoral success is based on swing seats rather than solid DLP seats, their defeats in the future could be as catastrophic as 2018 and 2022.

The Democratic Labour Party therefore must work in earnest to reconnect with its national base but also its support in traditional DLP seats to solidify itself for future elections. The party must focus its attention on the traditional DLP seats and fight from the bottom, up.

As was seen in 2022, Prime Minister Mottley’s political timing and strategy are not to be underestimated and all political parties seeking to contest the next general election should not find themselves like the five foolish virgins in Matthew 25:1-13 but rather should ensure that each constituency has a candidate in place long before this parliamentary term reaches its halfway point.

It must be remembered that a beautiful campaign cannot eclipse the connection and relationship a party has with its constituents.

This column was offered as a Letter to the Editor.