Winning the electorate over with facts, not fear

lection victories used to be about who could convince the public of the strength of the arguments presented. Today, it is about who can best tap into the grievances and base prejudices of people.

The greatest example of this in a modern democracy occurred on November 5 in the United States, where it was widely believed that the winning candidate was more successful at providing comfort for those who were angry about the economy, angry about the diminishing number of white people in the country, the cost of living and prejudices against people of colour and immigrants from certain countries.

Whether there will be a replication of this approach by other Western political leaders will be revealed over the next 12 to 24 months.

As part of the process of getting voters to pivot to the desired cause of a political party or entity, the role of messaging has proven to be critical. One side, particularly those who hold the reins of power, will extol the positives of the current administration, while the other side will point to the perceived deficiencies and missteps.

It is all about who the public believes more.

The Kamala Harris team tried to appeal to people’s better beings – their desire for truth, fairness, and hope. The other side won over Americans by targeting their fears and insecurities as well as their need for a foil on which to cast blame.

Barbados is presumably a long way from elections but the fierce battle to sway public opinion never stops. Those who oppose the current administration are making their cases early and providing fodder for what is expected to be a robust battle.

Looking back, there were some undeniable facts about the Barbados economy that certainly influenced the local electorate. The country’s foreign exchange position in 2018 was dire; there was little or no wiggle room to address infrastructural and social needs, unemployment was high, Barbados’ once stellar investment grade rating was in junk status after a string of downgrades, and confidence in the economy was low.

Things have come a long way. Record high levels of foreign reserves are being held by the Central Bank; the island has been able to borrow at reasonable interest rates; unemployment has fallen and positive ratings from various agencies have become the norm.

On the other hand, there are economists and opposition forces who caution that we should hold the applause and that Barbados is still in a vulnerable position.

One such voice has been that of economist and former Barbados Labour Party minister Anthony Wood who has not indicated any intention of returning to active politics but has been consistently messaging Barbadians that headwinds still abound. While praising the rating upgrades, the economist warned the country’s level of debt was unsustainable and that the overall debt of the country was increasing.

“Recent data indicate that the debt increased from $14.4 billion on September 30, 2023, to $14.9 billion on September 30, 2024, a net addition of $500 million over the 12 months,” he outlined.

Presenting a much better offering on how Barbados is doing, was Minister in the Ministry of Finance Ryan Straughn.

He stressed that the island’s improved creditworthiness would lower the costs of servicing the national debt, allowing the Government to redirect tax revenue towards enhanced public services rather than debt repayment.

“We’ve done a lot of work . . . in terms of repairing the macroeconomic conditions in the country.”

He added: “Growth has resumed in the economy and the debt is on a downward trajectory.”

The positions of these two economists are divergent and as the country moves towards another election season, it is critical that the electorate is provided with accurate, neutral and unvarnished analysis of the economy and the country’s prospects.

The last report from the 2022 general election showed a record-low voter turnout. Serious analysis of the reasons for this situation is sparse.

What was apparent was the declining interest of citizens to participate in the single most important aspect of our democracy. Voter apathy, the pandemic conditions, disgust with the quality of the candidates as well as a divided and demoralised main opposition party were identified as possible causes for voter disinterest.

Both political parties must seek to engage the Barbadian public in ways that inspire confidence and not split the country between the red and the blue supporters.

If there is anything that can be gleaned from the US presidential election it is that there are no real winners when the country is deeply divided and citizens are highly suspicious of each other.