#BTColumn – Is the shine off the ball?

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by Guy Hewitt

The notion of a week being ‘a long time in politics’ played out in the USA very recently. President Joe Biden conveyed a certain optimism as he departed for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Scotland.

It was to be an opportunity for him to improve on a 42 per cent approval rating, his lowest to date and the second lowest, only to Trump, of any president at this point in their presidency.

The week was anticipated to deliver several tangible outcomes. The Democratic domestic legislative agenda was expected to be approved. With major commitments to climate management included, the US could reassert its commitment to and global leadership on the environment. This would cascade into wins in the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey.

Instead, President Biden returned from his European excursion to an unwelcomed wake-up call. The political landscape of Washington was shaken by the unexpected victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin over former Governor Terry McAuliffe for the governorship of Virginia, coupled with a nail-biter finish in New Jersey.

These two off-year elections forgovernor are considered predictors for next year’s midterm elections that determine which party controls Congress. Democrats have only a five-vote margin in the House of Representatives and a single-vote margin in the Senate.

The Virginia governor’s race in particular was seen as a referendum on the first year of the Biden presidency especially as he won the state by 10 percentage points
a year ago. Many political analysts consider these Republican gains to be a precursor of even more sweeping victoriesin the 2022 midterms.

While it’s illogical to draw sweeping conclusions from these elections, the results make it clear that Democrats can’t simply run an anti-Trump campaign and expect to win. Democrats could repeat the ‘midterm curse’ that typically sees the party of the sitting president lose dozens of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives in the first election after winning the White House.

Republicans are basking in the results. Kevin McCarthy, Republican House Minority Leader, told his congressional caucus: “Virginia voters sent an undeniable message that extends to every corner of the country.

In times of anxiety, Americans are focused on the success and stability of their families and communities. Americans want a change in leadership, and Virginia is just the first step.”

Some key Democrats blamed the electoral outcome on their inability to deliver on Biden’s expansive legislative agenda. For months voters have witnessed Democratic infighting over their multitrillion-dollar transformative legislative agenda comprising a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and a $1.75 trillion-minimum social safety net expansion bill.

In the final weeks of the McAuliffe campaign, repeatedly warnings were conveyed that the inability to pass this sweeping social protection legislation had frustrated voters and was hindering the Virginia race.

The Democratic base has been further affected by the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the related supply chain problems that have increased prices. Added to this is a potential government shutdown and default on the nation’s debt looming in December.

However, for Democrats all is far from lost. They may soon pass the milestone legislation, thereby jumpstarting the economy. Further, most economic forecasts predict robust growth next year.

Nonetheless, Democrats are fearful that, with no guarantee of these outcomes and unable to use the menace of former President Trump as an effective strategy, they could suffer a similar 2010-like drubbing, which created the legislative gridlock that severely hindered the Obama presidency and gave rise to Trumpism.

Glenn Youngkin’s victory has been embraced as a remedy for Republicans to neutralise the toxicity of Trumpism. The former investment executive and philanthropist presented himself as a suburban dad in a fleece vest and engaged Trump just enough to win the primary and energise the Trump base.

However, to appeal to more moderate suburban voters he kept sufficient distance from the former president by not campaigning with him. He also focused on everyday issues like jobs, fiscal management, and education.

The strategy worked and has raised real concerns of how reliable the suburban drift away from Republicans and to Democrats during the Trump era really is. Were they sold on Democratic policies or just rented? Virginia’s result suggests that they may have been just rented, at least at this point.

We can anticipate more Republicans trying to model themselves after Youngkin in swing areas – refusing to disavow Trump but not keeping him too close and tailoring messages to both the hardcore Trumpers and moderate suburbanites.

However, it may not be easy for the Republicans to field more candidates like Youngkin to effectively maintain such balance. That’s especially true given how many congressional aspirants have tied themselves ever so tightly to Trump to win their primaries and how many communities may nominate candidates considerably more extreme than Youngkin.

Only time will tell; anything can happen for as we noted previously, a week is a long time in politics. May the Lord continue to be our people’s guide and may democracy prevail.

Guy Hewitt remains committed to Barbados. He can be reached at guyhewitt@gmail.com