#BTColumn – The Russia-Ukraine crisis as it unfolds

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author(s) do not represent the official position of Barbados TODAY.

by Stefan Newton

The immediate triggering event of Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is Ukraine’s move to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (“NATO”), and the West’s failure to give any assurance that it will not allow this move to happen.
Russia believes it will be able to exert less control/ influence over the former Soviet territory if it joins NATO.

Consequently, the stationing of troops on the border of Donbas, and now a military invasion, is a power grab to seize Ukraine for Russia, before any entry into NATO occurs.

President Vladimir Putin has long been unhappy with the redrawn borders and newly sovereign Eastern European countries that emerged from the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (“the Soviet Union”).

Putin wants to reverse agreed 1990s positions after the fall of the Soviet Union. Additionally, there is a strong separatist movement in Ukraine and other states to be brought back into the Russian “Empire”.

Basically, Putin wants to restore the Russian Empire. It has always been a political sore point for him. For many, the sprawling Russian Empire’s glory of the past is a held over belief for some people raised under the Soviet Union.

In 2014, the Crimea Invasion was an early signal of Putin’s intention for the reunification of the Russian Empire.
Right now, the timing of the unlawful aggression against Ukraine is influenced by many factors. Precipitating global events presented a key window of opportunity for a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In 2021, the USA showed hesitation for continued military operations against the Taliban’s seizure of Afghanistan.
Further, countries across the world are busy recovering from the economic, social and political fallout from COVID-19.

Thus, there is little appetite from populations for another disastrous international event.
Therefore, President Putin views prevailing global occurrences/sentiments as Russia’s golden opportunity to shift the balance of geopolitical power. Further, with EU scepticism growing in some quarters, Putin also thinks this is a good moment to challenge Europe.

Moreover, the support of the President Trump Administration for Russia ignited a global far-right movement in favour of Putin’s ideologies of Russian conquest. Put simply, the four years of the Trump Administration have emboldened President Putin. Now, he is tired of looking weak and as an appeaser to the Western World.
US-China relations are characterized by tensions.

Accordingly, receiving action from China in support of the West is more far-fetched. Although China at present seems to adopt a stance concerned with solidifying global economic power rather than a military confrontation with the USA in order to achieve its global superpower objectives. Therefore, China may very well sit silently in the face of Russia’s annexation of Ukraine, worse yet it may quietly support the annexation (A proxy war with the USA).

Finally, economic sanctions imposed on Russia and the effects of war may very well hurt Western countries’ own populations. Already, leaders of nations, for example UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson – who has imposed the largest and most severe economic sanctions Russia has ever experienced from the UK – are confronting growing restlessness over rising energy prices from recent surges in oil prices.

Russia is the world’s third largest producer of oil, and its military actions this week caused oil prices to skyrocket to 100 USD, adding fuel to the energy price fire. The surge in oil prices is coupled with uncontrolled inflation and global supply chain disruptions, thereby hurting household finances.

Similarly, one year into his term of office, President Joe Biden isn’t performing as well as the public envisioned and is receiving low approval ratings. Taking into account domestic political calculations, leaders may be somewhat more amenable to making concessions in negotiations over Ukraine.

Peaceful solutions that may be thrown around include a power sharing agreement or sort of “bringing back into the

Russian empire” of Ukraine and other former Soviet states, but with a separate governance structure. Putin may be hedging his bets on the USA – subtly and in behind closed negotiation doors- taking a position of “Enough already!
Have the darn thing, we can’t afford this at the expense of our populations right now”.

This is Putin’s best hope. Will President Putin get what he wants? Events are fast unfolding and are subject to change by the time this article is published. Additionally, what happens with ongoing military action or in the unlikely alternative peaceful agreement, is highly speculative at the time of the writing of this article. The coming days are some of the most important for the geopolitical history of the world.

Stefan Newton is a graduate of The University of the West Indies Faculty of Law & a UK Chevening Scholar. He holds a Master of Laws in International Law specializing in International Human Rights and Humanitarian law from American University Washington College of Law. He also holds a Master of Laws in International Economic Law from Queen Mary University of London.