#BTEditorial – Fiona reminding us not to take hurricane preparedness for granted

It’s been quiet, but no more.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has roared to life in a devastating way for some parts of our Caribbean – Guadeloupe, the Turks and Caicos, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.

Ahead of the start of the June 1-November 30 period, forecasters had predicted between 14 and 20 named storms, with six to 10 turning into hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Three to five of those could become major hurricanes, which have winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

Up until now, it had been relatively quiet in the Atlantic, with three named storms that fizzled out early – Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Hurricane Daniel emerged on September 1 but, thankfully, it was short-lived.

Forecasters especially took note there were no named storms in August, the first time in 25 years, according to experts.

The National Hurricane Center said in its monthly tropical weather summary last month: “This is quite unusual and is the first time that has occurred since 1997, and is only the third time that has happened since 1950.”

Interestingly, the experts from Colorado State University (CSU) issued an updated forecast on August 4, slightly decreasing the number of expected storms.

Due to La Niña, CSU is still expecting an above-average season with 18 named storms, eight of which could become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph. Experts say out of the hurricanes, four of them could be major (Category 3 or higher) with winds of at least 115 mph.

“We’re knocking down our forecast numbers a bit,” Phil Klotzbach,  lead author of the CSU forecast, told FOX Weather. “That’s not necessarily due to the quiet period we’ve had lately, but more due to the large-scale circulation becoming slightly less favourable.”

But CSU warned this was no signal to relax.

It said: “We continue to anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

At the weekend, there was clear evidence that we shouldn’t take calm in the Atlantic for granted. Hurricane Fiona delivered the grim reminder that we are very much at the peak of the season when some of the most devastating hurricanes have wreaked havoc.

Late last week, Fiona dumped torrential showers on Guadeloupe, claiming the life of one person there and another in the Dominica Republic which was left under water. On Monday, she slammed into Puerto Rico, leaving 3.1 million residents without water and power, according to international reports. Many left with homes under floodwaters were just back on their feet from Hurricane Maria which pummelled the country five years ago.

Today, the Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 miles per hour battered the Turks and Caicos with its punishing heavy rains and, according to forecasters, it could develop into a Category 4 system with sustained winds of 130 to 165 miles by early Wednesday over the Atlantic.

Fiona is forecast to pass near or well west of Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday.

No wonder our forecasters at the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) have been repeatedly urging citizens not to drop their guard.

As a matter of a fact, the BMS has put us on guard as it monitors the progress of an approaching tropical wave to the east of the island.

The forecasters note the system should track south to Barbados during Wednesday and could deliver some heavy showers.

The BMS said: “With Barbados on the northern fringe of the activity, there is the possibility of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall as the wave affects the island from Wednesday. Winds are likely to be between 20 to 25 knots (35 to 45 km/h) with higher gusts possible during heavy shower activity. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are possible as activity trailing the wave persists across the island into Thursday.”

Let’s hope we are spared any major impact.

It only takes one severe weather event to turn the most mundane year into a painful one. Take stock and remain prepared.