We’re in denial over population decline. Time to face facts.

There is no other way to put it: Barbados is experiencing a demographic shift that is leading to a declining and rapidly ageing population.

The birth rate has fallen from two births per woman in 2000 to 1.7 in 2020, according to the most recently available figures. Barbadians are not only having fewer children but are living longer – life expectancy has risen from 74 years in 2000 to 78 by 2019. At the turn of the century, one in ten Barbadians, 10 per cent, of the population was over age 65; nearly halfway into the third decade of the century, it is nearly two in ten Barbadians, at 16 per cent.

The fact is that the growing ageing population coupled with lower fertility rates has led to an overall decline in Barbados’ population from 279 000 in 2000 to 287 000 by 2020. This decline will continue as the trends of lower fertility rates and greater longevity combine to age the population.

In the interim, this demographic challenge characterised by a declining population is leading to a shrinking revenue and social security base.

The concept of entropy from thermodynamics can be applied to this decline. Entropy refers to disorder or randomness in a closed system, where concentrated energy spreads out and becomes more dispersed over time with disorder as the result. Similarly, Barbados’ population is acting like a closed system that is becoming more disordered. Just as dispersed heat energy is no longer useful for work, our ageing population foreshadows economic decline with more and more working-age citizens who are unable to support dependents.

Countries attempt to counter entropy by importing labour or having more babies. Globally, ageing populations signal worldwide demographic entropy, requiring societies to adapt.

Barbadians were told by the education minister in the last administration that migrating workers and their families threatened the availability of school places – while primary school after primary school was closed or amalgamated. In St John alone, the Mount Tabor Primary School remains from the former Hothersal, Cherry Grove, Society, and more recently, St John’s Primary School. So much for pressure on scarce resources.

Immigration thus emerges as a viable solution and a strategic imperative for our island’s sustainable development.

The CARICOM skilled nationals scheme attracts skilled professionals, entrepreneurs and workers, so we can fill critical gaps in key sectors such as healthcare, technology, and tourism. This influx of talent invigorates our economy, stimulates innovation, creates new opportunities for growth and wealth creation – and pays PAYE, NISSS and VAT.

Immigration beckons to throw us a demographic lifeline. With an ageing population and declining birth rates, the arrival of young, working-age immigrants helps to replenish our workforce and strengthen the financial stability of our social security and healthcare systems.

Or we could salute the Broken Trident and go down with the Good Ship Barbados, taking our inflexible, bigoted ethnocentrism with us, clinging to the flotsam and jetsam of cultural purity in a nation that began its life bringing in “foreigners”.

But governments should be made of sterner stuff. And the administration, in concert with fellow CARICOM member states, has moved to expand the categories for the free movement of skilled workers within CARICOM.

In this regard, we are drawn to the opinions recently expressed by the Canada-based Barbadian economist Carlos Forte. While he has raised pertinent concerns regarding the potential social and economic ramifications of increased labour mobility within the Caribbean, his arguments necessitate critical examination, particularly in the context of Barbados’ demographic challenges and the imperative for regional integration.

Forte’s assertion regarding the necessity of synchronising the free movement of labour with the integration of capital and the establishment of a common currency holds merit. ‘Twas ever thus intended from the beginning. Indeed, the successful realisation of economic integration within CARICOM demands a holistic approach that encompasses the free movement of goods, labour and capital.

We however challenge certain assumptions underlying Forte’s arguments, particularly regarding the perceived threats posed by an influx of immigrants and the presumed displacement of Barbadian workers.

With declining population growth and an ageing workforce, the expansion of labour mobility presents an opportunity to address these demographic imbalances by attracting skilled professionals and fostering a more dynamic and diverse labour market. Our options for increasing the population without immigration are limited. Facilitating the entry of skilled workers from neighbouring Caribbean countries is not only prudent but also essential for sustaining economic growth and competitiveness.

It will soon be 20 years since the introduction of the CARICOM skilled national certification system. The fears of an island overrun by job-seekers taking jobs from Barbadians – arguments similar to the fear-mongering meted out to Bajans who left these shores for Britain, the United States and Canada – have failed to materialise. Twenty years is a long time to wait for Armageddon.

On the contrary, many skilled Barbadian workers have come to see CARICOM as a market for enterprise and jobs – from designers and creatives to technicians and managers. While critics obsess with the free movement of labour provisions, they ignore that the CSME also allows for the setting up of businesses (right of establishment), the portability of social security and cross-border stock ownership. The Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) has long abolished work permit and residency restrictions for its citizens in its Economic Union; where, then, is the spectre of islanders fleeing one island for the other?

Rather than viewing increased labour mobility as a zero-sum game, policymakers should prioritise initiatives aimed at enhancing the employability and competitiveness of the local workforce. This entails investing in education, skills development, and training programmes designed to equip Barbadians with the requisite skills to thrive in a rapidly evolving labour market. We are not blind to the administration’s efforts in this regard with the National Training Initiative (NTI) and other policy measures to make Barbadians more employable.

Forte’s emphasis on the need for comprehensive planning and infrastructure development to accommodate an influx of immigrants is well-founded. But these are not insurmountable challenges that can be effectively addressed through strategic policy interventions and collaborative efforts between government, civil society, and the private sector.

Investment in healthcare, education, and social services is not throwing money into a bottomless pit. A vibrant workplace can pay its way through taxation; the larger the workforce the lighter the tax burden.

Ultimately, the debate surrounding the expansion of labour mobility within CARICOM should not be framed solely in terms of perceived risks and challenges but rather as an opportunity to foster greater regional cooperation and integration.

Today’s Barbados is a progressive and inclusive society. It has a responsibility to embrace diversity, promote tolerance, and create an enabling environment conducive to the free movement of people, capital, goods, and ideas. A forward-thinking approach that puts innovation, inclusivity and sustainable development first, we argue, can position this nation as a beacon of regional integration and cooperation in the Caribbean, while saving ourselves from self-imposed.

Carlos Forte is right to insist that expanded labour mobility within CARICOM should accompany equally liberal policies on capital. A single CARICOM dollar in this regard becomes not a pipe dream but an essential part of a single market that ought to be revisited. By addressing demographic challenges, investing in human capital development, and promoting inclusive growth strategies, Barbados can harness the potential of increased labour mobility to build a more prosperous, resilient, and equitable society for all its citizens and residents.

We can only do this by shedding the partisan blinkers that too often hold back our development as a nation. Reducing a sober discussion of the need for immigration to the usual squabble that too often passes for political debate, chock-full of vile personal attacks, questioning motives and chauvinism, is to forego the one shot we might have of preventing the speeding up of demographic entropy.