Lies, damned lies, and economic data

“Data are just summaries of thousands of stories — tell a few of those stories to help make the data meaningful.” – Dan Heath, American bestselling author and orator.

“Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself.” – Winston Churchill, former British Prime Minister

A caller on a local radio talk show was verbally attacked when a question was asked about the roads being patched and repaired and if they would stand up for any considerable length of time.

Sometime later in the programme, someone suggested that data and statistics would possibly provide the answer.

A similar type of response is likely if questions are asked about unemployment, the possibility of the country falling into a debt trap, and if the ICC T20 World Cup will be a success.

Will economic growth over the past consecutive quarters continue and remain buoyant for any considerable length of time?

We have reached a time in our country when we have to be most circumspect about how we handle and respond to data, and at what conclusions we arrive.

An editorial writer referred to comments made by Professor Justin Robinson: “The economy continues to be buffeted by declining but stubbornly high inflation which may be eroding the spending power of a broad cross-section of society, and rising foreign debt service costs which are impacting negatively on the public finances.”

One is at a loss as to why Professor Robinson seemed to be uncertain about the spending power of Barbadians when there is empirical evidence that the economy has been growing while being impacted by inflation.

Barbadians should be aware there is a school of thought held by significant numbers of economists that a good dose of inflation helps to drive economic growth.

Some seemingly paradoxical phenomena can go way beyond economics. With contradictory statements in various quarters about unemployment and other related matters, several questions are being asked with fewer answers being presented.

For example, a statement abounds that unemployment is decreasing, but apparently not because of more jobs, and increased employment, but owing to persons leaving the workforce by reason of retirement, resignations, redundancies and death.

Barbadians must not be easily misled by data, ratios, numbers, and statistics, but rather become familiar with the subject matter at hand and do personal and private analyses.

Former president of the United States of America, Calvin Coolidge spoke about unemployment without using numbers or statistics. A man of few words, he simply said: “When more and more people are thrown out of work, unemployment results”.

Ultimately, data, ratios, numbers, and statistics should be correctly interpreted.

Michael Ray