Heat-related illnesses set to rise, met officials warn

Barbados is bracing for an increase in heat-related illnesses in the coming months, according to the latest climate outlook from the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS).

The June edition of the Barbados Climate Outlook Newsletter (BCON) reports that warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will lead to persistently high temperatures and an intense heat season.

“Temperatures will continue to be uncomfortable during the day and night and the risk of heat-related illness will continue to increase as the heat season continues to evolve,” the newsletter states.

The BMS predicts peak temperatures between 30°C and 33°C across rural districts, with urban, coastal and southwestern areas likely reaching between 33°C and 36°C until October. It can feel as hot as 40°C to 50°C during the day until the heat season ends around October or November.

In addition to the heat, the warmer SSTs may also contribute to increased rainfall and flash flooding across the island. The outlook for August, September and October is less favourable, with localised rainfall potentially leading to brief agricultural drought conditions in some areas.

The BMS has elevated the agricultural drought alert level to yellow (“be aware”) for this period, particularly for parts of extreme northern and southern parishes of St Lucy, St Philip and Christ Church. Farmers are advised to monitor updates from the Ministry of Agriculture and the BMS.

Despite recent rainfall, the Barbados Water Authority is maintaining a hydrological drought watch for July due to increased water usage in June. The public is urged to continue conserving water and to monitor updates from both the BWA and BMS.

The newsletter also notes that forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season of an extremely active year, influenced by warm sea surface temperatures and the transition to the La Niña phenomenon.

La Niña is expected to develop between August and October, coinciding with the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This climate pattern is marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, which typically leads to more favourable conditions for hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin. La Niña reduces vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, making it easier for tropical storms to form, organise and intensify.

Although La Niña’s arrival is slightly delayed this year,
its influence is still anticipated to contribute to an active hurricane season, with forecasts predicting above-average storm activity.

(EJ)