Caribbean’s silver lining in US Presidential Race

he prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency following the upcoming US election could inspire new hope among Caribbean leaders of a new era of improved relations and support for the region on issues such as climate change, according to Peter Wickham, the noted political scientist and pollster.

With American president Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, Harris, his vice president, has emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, offering a stark contrast to the potential impact of a second Trump term.

Wickham told Barbados TODAY this development is likely to be welcomed by Caribbean leaders who have been wary of the repercussions a Trump presidency might have on oil prices, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

“I believe that Caribbean people are concerned about how the president would address those types of issues, like the Gaza issue, the war in Ukraine; those have the potential to send the cost of oil through the roof. Those kinds of issues, I think, would impact on who we would want in the White House after the next election,” the former lecturer in political science and research methods at the University of the West Indies Cave Hill’s department of government said.

He also contrasted Trump’s vision of an end to the war in Ukraine and Gaza with that of other world leaders, with Trump proposing that Ukraine should be handed over to the Russians, whereas “the rest of the world is more comfortable with a slightly different solution.

“My feeling is that you want a president that has the necessary muscle to push an end in that regard with giving Ukraine what it needs to finish up,” he explained.

Wickham also suggested that a Harris administration would be more attuned to the needs of the Caribbean and could be more open to extending support for vulnerable countries grappling with the effects of climate change. This, he said, aligned with the efforts of Caribbean leaders such as Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who have been advocating for urgent action on environmental issues. In contrast, Trump’s ‘America First’ rhetoric and track record on environmental matters have raised concerns in the region, Wickham observed.

The political scientist said that while Trump might attempt to dismantle environmental initiatives, as he did with the Paris Agreement during his previous term, such actions can have a lasting impact even if they were reversed by subsequent administrations.

“I still would agree entirely that those kinds of environmental initiatives conversations [about such initiatives] will go more smoothly under a Harris administration because they are not promising to be America first. I think the idea is that they should be America first but not America only. Trump seems to be America only and that really is problematic,” Wickham stressed.

After weeks of speculation and pressure from fellow Democrats, Biden announced on Sunday that he would no longer run for president and endorsed Harris as his replacement. The announcement energised the Democratic base and the latest polls show Harris closing in on Trump in the race for the White House.

Wickham commended Biden for his decision, citing it as a display of political maturity that could serve as an example for Caribbean nations. He suggested that the region should consider implementing term limits, pointing out the tendency for Caribbean leaders, such as Ralph Gonsalves of St Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica’s Roosevelt Skerrit, to remain in office for much too long.

“There’s a clear level of maturity being demonstrated with the American political system, but that’s not always been the case more so than the Caribbean,” Wickham said. “Our system in the Caribbean has been made primitive.”  shamarblunt@barbadostoday.bb