Faster storm intensification heightens danger even in slower season

Barbadians are being urged not to lower their guard despite forecasts of a quieter Atlantic hurricane season this year, with officials warning that a single storm could still cause severe damage.

Director of the Barbados Meteorological Services, Sabu Best, cautioned that it only takes one hurricane to cause devastation, as the Department of Emergency Management launched the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday.

Forecasts from most international agencies suggest that hurricane activity across the Atlantic basin will be average to below average this year, Best said. 

“This is actually one of the lowest predictions we had in eight years for tropical storms, and so it’s all indications that the season will not be that active, but I want to stress on this again, even though it’s indications that would not be that active, do not let your guard down, it only takes one.”

While noting that forecasts point to fewer intense hurricanes, Best warned that the threat posed by tropical systems continues to increase, particularly as rapid intensification becomes more common.

“It doesn’t matter [if] you have one or two. The fact that the energy is there, and that rapid intensification is becoming more and more, more and more a thing of norm each year we go on, and that’s very important. 

“So, even though it is a system that may be developing to your east, one may think that is too close to intensify into something major. In fact, that rapid intensification, which the system could be a tropical storm the night before and become a cat two or three hurricane the very next morning, is a real thing. It’s realistic, and so you have to be prepared for the worst.”

The meteorologist also pointed to forecasts for below- to near-average rainfall during the rainy season but warned that isolated heavy rainfall events could still trigger flooding and damage.

“What that means is that [for] the most part, some sections may actually still be pretty dry in the wet season or experience dry periods. We do anticipate that the middle of the heat season, especially around August or September, when we get those light winds, heavy downpours in St. James, St. Thomas…  that you can actually get rainfall amounts that will burst the ceilings of these productions. It’s very difficult to make a prediction for very small event that can give you downpours.”

Best referred to last week’s extreme rainfall event in Dominica, where approximately 400 millimetres of rain fell within a matter of hours, triggering landslides and damaging homes in several communities.

Barbados could experience heatwaves during the peak of the heat season, particularly in August and September, he warned. 

“We don’t anticipate the break records this year like in 2023 but it’s going to be hot as usual, and what can really make you feel hotter is the fact that if we don’t have as much rainfall days, so they ain’t gonna be out that relief that you would like to, if you get a day of rain, you get a little break from the heat, that’s what’s important, the breaks, but if it’s day after day after day, the heat can feel relentless.”

 

(LG)