Top climate scientist urges vigilance despite fewer storms forecast

Despite forecasts of fewer cyclones and below-average rainfall this season, the Caribbean’s lead climatologist is warning that a dangerous mix of drought, delayed rains, extreme heat and sudden flooding could still pose serious risks to Barbados and the wider region.

Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, who leads regional forecasting at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), warned that water levels in reservoirs could be compromised, the rains needed to end the current wildfires may be delayed, and a predicted heatwave could cause deaths if it occurs immediately after a severe storm.

He told Barbados TODAY: “What we have been seeing so far in Barbados, because it’s been so dry, we have a lot of fires. Those fires will eventually be quenched by rainfall when the wet season rains start falling more regularly. That said, it is possible that in a year like this where we have an El Niño in place, which is developing right now, it could be a very strong one this year, we tend to have a delay of that wet season. So, that means the dryness may continue for a while. 

“But it doesn’t mean that every yard in Barbados will stay dry. It does mean there is a higher chance that the dryness continues for a little bit longer; but any weather event can stop that just in one go. We hope that one rainfall event would not suddenly be a lot of rainfall in one go, because then you get flash floods.

“The dryer the soil, it might sound a bit controversial, but the dryer the soil, the faster a certain amount of rainfall will lead to flash floods, because, when the soil is very dry, it is compacted, and the water does not seep underneath very easily. So, then it stays on the surface and leads to flash floods.”

For the entirety of the season, and up to the end of the year, total rainfall may be below average, Dr Van Meerbeeck said. 

“It does mean that our water reservoirs at below capacity; and then we still have to make it through the next dry season.”

The forecast may not pan out, as it indicates a higher likelihood of drier conditions, not a certainty.

He argued that even if the country experiences less rainfall than average, fewer showers are likely, but any of those showers could still be intense.

“We shouldn’t let our guard down. It’s not because it’s dryer than average, that we cannot get flash flooding. So, that is what our message is. We need to continue to be prepared for hurricanes, for heat, for dryness and for a lot of rain to fall all at once; and that is what we need to bear in mind as we go into the hurricane season.”

With regard to heat, Dr Van Meerbeeck warned that temperatures will be very high both day and night, with significantly warmer nights.

“So, if our homes are too hot at night, we don’t sleep well, if we don’t sleep well, we become prone to illnesses and so on. So, the night time heat is the one that usually affects health most; the one that affects productivity most, if it is a very long heat wave and it is night time heat. If it is just short, then it could be just excessive heat during one particular hot day or two or three particular hot days.”

He therefore suggested that more vulnerable people be cared for and made aware of the dangers of heat and its signs and symptoms.

Dr Van Meerbeeck disclosed that forecasts show both daytime and night-time heat will be especially evident from August to October, subsiding thereafter.

The climatologist also expects that the anticipated heatwave is likely to increase electricity costs for consumers, particularly amid the ongoing energy crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict.

“There will be more heat, which means people would want to cool themselves more…the cooling demand is increasing. At the same time, energy prices might be high as well. So, it is really something we need to discuss at the right levels of society across Barbados. How are we going to tackle an energy crisis when it’s so hot.”

He drew attention to the fact that many vulnerable people do not have access to adequate cooling, such as “very strong” fans or air conditioning.

The climatologist also said Barbados may be less affected this year by storms or hurricanes because of its geographical location.

“This year, the highest danger is in the northern Caribbean fortunately. That doesn’t prevent the fact that in August and September, it will be too hot anyway. But it does make the length of that season where the extreme heat is occurring, a little bit shorter than in further northern locations in the Caribbean. So, we might have to contend a little less longer with the excess heat than they do.”

Dr Van Meerbeeck also highlighted a recent phenomenon posing a severe heat risk:

“Heat right after the passage of a hurricane, can be a major cause of death in a country. The reason for that is that at the outskirts of a hurricane the conditions are more conducive to a heat wave. At the same time, the population, after the passage of a bad storm, the population cannot defend itself against the effects of the heat.”

He explained that this is because people may have lost shelter and electricity, and are physically and emotionally fatigued, making them more vulnerable.

“So, we want to definitely make sure that we don’t ignore the effects of a heat wave right after the impact of a hurricane,” he said.

Dr Van Meerbeeck  added that while he could not guarantee it would happen in Barbados this year, it was likely elsewhere in the region.

“It is a reality that we need to contend with, within some years, in some parts of the Caribbean. So, we need to remember that at least, across the region, this might happen.”

 

(EJ)