More rain in the forecast for 2021

The Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) is predicting a continuation of the heavy rainfall Barbados has been experiencing in recent months.

In fact, in its predictions for the first quarter of the year, the BMS said “the period January to March 2021, favours above normal rainfall with a 63 per cent probability expected”. This forecast has been outlined in the December issue of the Barbados Climate Outlook Newsletter, produced by the BMS.

It added: “Long-term forecasts indicate a 48 per cent probability of below normal rainfall mainly across southern parishes. There is a lower chance [26 per cent] of receiving near normal or above normal rainfall across the remainder of the island.”

The analysis suggests that St Philip, normally viewed as a dry parish, was among those receiving the highest rainfall levels during the 2020 wet season.

“The highest rainfall totals were measured in St Andrew, St Phillip, St George, St James and St John respectively with the maximum rainfall total of 291.4mm measured in St Andrew,” the weather professionals noted.

And St Philip is predicted to be among the parishes receiving the highest rainfall during January, February and March of 2021.

So confident about increased rainfall activity in 2021, the BMS is downplaying the chances of drought conditions during the first half of the New Year.

“Current rainfall forecasts continue to favour above normal rainfall throughout the season January to March 2021 with a low probability of below normal rainfall through April to June. Therefore, drought conditions are not expected by the end of March 2021. Long-term outlooks also indicate no concern for drought by the end of the dry season, May 2021. It is important to note that short periods with little to no rainfall are still likely throughout the season,” the BMS disclosed.

As a result of the increased rain during the short to medium term, it is expected that Barbados’ underground aquifers will be recharged, while the meteorologists suggest Barbadians update their management plans and undertake any upgrades necessary to infrastructure.

In the agricultural sector, the BMS said farmers should expect an increase in the incidence of fungal pathogens, and variations in crop yield could result during the wet period. Importantly, excessive rainfall may negatively impact the “storability and quality of some crops” famers were advised.

For citizens, the increased rainfall during January to June will result in cooler nights and “comfortable daytime temperatures, which are usually apparent during this time of year”.  At the same time, they have cautioned that mosquito-borne diseases spreading due to stagnant water was a likely threat. (IMC1)