‘UNEASY HEAD’

Two leading political scientists have differed on whether Leader of the Opposition Ralph Thorne should feel secure in his position heading into a future general election.

The duo were commenting to Barbados TODAY in light of the four-way race for a Barbados Labour Party (BLP) candidate for the Christ Church South seat in the next general election, following the incumbent MP’s defection to the opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP).

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Senator Dr Shantal Munro-Knight, Kurt Haynes, the personal assistant to the Minister of Health, Justice of the Peace Janal Browne, and Vice President of the Barbados Agricultural Society Rommel Parris have declared their interest in representing the BLP in the southern constituency.

Though political scientists Dr George Belle and Devaron Bruce both agreed that it was inevitable for the BLP to seek to replace the vacant seat with a strong candidate, they had contrasting views on whether Thorne should remain confident in defending the seat for the Dems at the next polls.

Bruce told Barbados TODAY: “Interestingly enough, the DLP has a sitting MP for the seat, Mr Ralph Thorne, and that certainly gives him the machinery of the party behind him. So he is the political leader of the party, and that is currently his seat. So as far as the DLP being concerned about it, I think they have the best candidate given the fact he has been elected twice and has shown the ability to win the seat.

“Now he has the ability to funnel resources towards him, funnel party support towards him, he has a level of public notoriety now as the opposition leader, so all of those things quite frankly work in the favour of the Democratic Labour Party.”

Despite the BLP winning all 30 seats for the last two general elections, Bruce believes Thorne’s position as the political leader of the DLP gives him a slight edge.

He said: “I would give the notoriety advantage to Ralph Thorne given he has won the seat twice and he is opposition leader. That, quite frankly, may be a tall order for the individuals trying to challenge him, despite the fact he became opposition leader by crossing the floor, and naturally that would have created some challenges for him on the ground politically. But if you look at it properly, Christ Church South in many ways is also a strong DLP seat.

“We think of John Boyce winning the seat in 2008 and 2013 for two terms, so it’s not as though it’s a hardcore BLP seat.”

He added that loud calls from a section of the public for an opposition presence in Parliament further strengthened Thorne’s position.

“We now have an opposition leader representing them in Parliament and a head of a political party as opposed to just merely an MP. We know that when Ralph was the MP under the Barbados Labour Party he did not receive a ministry, there were no major offerings to him beyond the Thorne Commission, for instance. So I think his elevation has really lifted consideration, interest, and potential for Christ Church South as a constituency. Certainly to my mind [that] is an advantage,” Bruce said.   

But veteran political scientist Dr Belle did not hold the same view.

“There is no evidence that because he changed parties that the people that have supported him in the last general election would change parties with him,” Dr Belle said. “The possibility is greater the other way – that he would now lose the support of the people who voted for him in the last general election. This is why very often we would say that depending on the character of the person who crossed the floor, that most often, when somebody crosses the floor, they are likely to lose their seat.

“I’d say in the case of Mr Thorne, that he is likely to lose his seat in the next general election if he remains in that constituency that is Christ Church South unless there is a massive swing against the present government.”

Dr Belle dismissed the theory based on Thorne’s statements that the Mottley administration was attempting to bump him from the seat with another candidate, triggering his departure. He said that if such a move was being made, it was most likely in response to moves Thorne himself was planning at the time.

“If he had such information and such intelligence that people were running against him, then the party had intelligence that he was talking to the Democratic Labour Party. The two things go together. The reason why you send somebody out there to look after the constituency is because you had insdications that the person who is there in name representing the Barbados Labour Party is not somebody that you can be sure about, because you have evidence that they are talking to the Democratic Labour Party because the Democratic Labour Party is looking for a bridgehead to get an opposition leader in Parliament.”

shamarblunt@barbadostoday.bb