Caribbean ‘will bounce back from COVID-19’

It will take some time but the Caribbean is expected to rebound from the huge economic fallout expected from the worldwide pandemic,  Pro-Vice Chancellor for Global Affairs at the University of the West Indies (UWI) Dr Richard Bernal has predicted.

Speaking at a teleconference – COVID-19: Approaching Code Red – he said: “The pandemic has already put national and global economies into a recession. Nobody is sure how long the recession will last or how intense it will be.

“The world economies and our economic and social life are never going to be the exact way it was prior to the pandemic.

“But there are going to be opportunities in any crisis and we must look for those. We have already seen a number of innovative developments, entrepreneurial activities at the household level, at the level of firms who have redeployed or redacted their production facilities to produce different goods.

“So all is not doom and gloom. We Caribbean people have a long record of resilience to all kinds of man-made and unnatural disasters and there is no reason why we should not find ways to expand. It is going to be difficult but I see no reason why we should not be able to rebuild our economies.”

But even in his positive outlook, Dr Bernal reiterated the fact that the region should prepare itself for the post COVID-19 world.

“We must realize that life is never going to be exactly as it was before and certainly global economies will experience some changes and we have to adjust to those in a proactive, strategic way so that we can resuscitate economic development,” he added.

As it relates to the Caribbean’s tourism industry after COVID-19, Dr Bernal said he expected it to rebound quite quickly.

This, he said, was based on the fact that the Caribbean was handling the pandemic much better than several of the region’s source markets.

Dr Bernal, a former CARICOM lead trade negotiator, said: “First of all, international travel is going to be different than it was in the past. There will be a lot less business travel as meetings will be done by Zoom. There will also be more health precautions because I think airlines will be required to ensure that the passengers they take on board are clear medically…

“Secondly, the developing countries of the Caribbean have done relatively well compared to the source countries of our main tourists markets such as the US and the UK. So people in those countries should feel relatively safe coming back to the Caribbean.

“Thirdly, based on experience after the global financial crisis and the 9/11 events, the Caribbean is close to the US and the pattern of US tourists is to take short visits. The Caribbean is affordable, it is doing well in terms of handling the pandemic and I think that based on that we could be favourably disposed to a relatively quick resumption of trips to the region.”

But Dr Bernal said he did not expect a similarly smooth transition with the cruise ship industry, as it had been facing several health crises even before the COVID-19 pandemic.

He said he expected it to “take some time” for that industry to be rebuilt.
randybennett@barbadostoday.bb