Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by this author are their own and do not represent the official position of the Barbados Today.
by Ralph Jemmott
The most obviously recurring word in contemporary Barbadian discourse is the term ‘transformation.’ Everyone wants to effect a transformation of something. This is not surprising given the array of things that are going wrong, and we understandably want to see an improvement.
Transformation is a strong word. It implies a significant turnaround in a condition, a fundamental, positive departure from a negative norm.
However, few of the would-be ‘transformers’ seem to know exactly what it is they want to change or how precisely they would bring about the alteration.
Too often the prescription for change reflects little more than happy talk, Pollyanna type glimpses of a brighter future that ignores the existential difficulties of overcoming the harsh realities of our time.
For World Tourism Day, Minister Senator Lisa Cummins’ message was about improving the sector through ‘digital transformation.’ The reality is that as the message itself points out, the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) sees 100 to 120 million tourism jobs as being at risk because of the global pandemic.
Minister Cummins herself admits that since March over 10, 000 tourism professionals have been furloughed as many of Barbados’ accommodations and attractions have been forced to close. She rightfully concluded that: “We will continue to face challenges in the short and medium term.”
One cannot be sure that even with the best of intentions, the transformation of Barbados tourism is in our hands. The Coronavirus may have the last word. There will be no transformation of tourism until the cruise ship and land-based visitors decide to return in their significant numbers.
Professor Michael Howard is on record as saying that Barbados “will only start to emerge from this recession if the tourism industry is restored to over 60 per cent or more occupancy”.
The Barbados Welcome Stamp is a good idea, but it is unlikely that it can fill the void left by the decline in the tourism sector.
In August, Archdeacon Eric Lynch called on Barbadians to band together to “transform the unjust structures of society.” Invariably, the talk of injustice centres around socio-economic disparities. Some measure of inequality is baked into
material culture.
One cannot remove inequalities from a capitalist economy, though one should always seek to mitigate or eliminate systemic unfairness.
An egalitarian society can only be fashioned in the context of a thorough political revolution which, more often than not, creates its own injustices.
If there are specific injustices to be eliminated, then say what they are and address them specifically. Archdeacon Lynch must tell us exactly what are the systemic injustices in Barbadian society?
Human beings must be at the centre of transformative change. There has to be substantive popular buy-in to the transforming enterprise. The notion that, ‘we are all in this together’ must be more than a catch phrase.
Barbados was built on its human capital, more specifically on its commitment to law, order and a modicum of social discipline.
Regrettably, our human capital is diminishing. The values consensus has dissolved and we are seeing the emergence of a ghettoised underclass that is defiant of traditional mainstream values. How are we planning to transform that?
Eventually, the discourse about ‘transforming’ Barbados cannot escape the reality that we are currently living in a resource constraining environment.
The truth is that the Barbadian economy is weak. It grew by a mere 0.6 per cent in 2019 pre-COVID and its performance is unlikely to improve post-COVID. We have already seen a 27 per cent decline of economic output in the second quarter of 2020.
This is not to negate the efforts of the present administration to bring the economy into some measure of equilibrium.
We have seen an ordering of the fiscal balance, debt restructuring, and some restoration of the reserves. The Pandemic has upset the apple cart.
There is nothing that can immediately replace the gains from tourism. Local manufacturing cannot compete in a global market. Agriculture may be for self-sufficiency, but it is unlikely to be export competitive. The Council of the European Union seems determined to blacklist Barbados as a non-cooperative jurisdiction for tax purposes.
This, in spite of the fact that Barbados has amended some 15 pieces of legislation over the past 18 months in order to comply with EU regulations.
The EU’s position has had and continues to have adverse financial consequences for Barbados in terms of its competitiveness in the International Business sector.
In a statement to the Press (The Nation. August 26, 2020), Professor Howard indicated why, in the present circumstances, he is “very pessimistic”.
He listed four other economic problems posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The first is large scale unemployment, the second is a sharp decline in sales in the private sector, another is the collapse of many private sector enterprises, heavy National Insurance Scheme disbursements and equally heavy severance payments by private business.
Transformation may be a consummation devoutly to be wished, but far more difficult to achieve.
Ralph Jemmott is a retired educator.
