Tourism, this island’s number one foreign exchange earner, is expected to show further improvement by year-end as general economic recovery remains key to rebuilding to pre-COVID times.
In making the assertion on Friday just after attending an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission meeting here, Government’s Senior Economic Advisor Dr Kevin Greenidge gave the assurance that the country was experiencing positive signs for the medium to long-term future despite taking a major blow from the COVID-19 virus that decimated the tourism sector last year.
“The focus has to be on recovery, recovering this economy to where it needs to be. We had made tremendous gains prior to COVID. COVID put a lash in us beyond anything we could imagine. We need to recover. In order to recover, we need to get the COVID situation under control and get the tourism product going and then continue to build those industries between tourism and the other sectors; continue then to try to diversify and find high-end markets. We are good at high-skilled jobs. We need to focus on those things,” Dr Greenidge said.
The senior economist speaking on Voice of Barbados’ Brasstacks dismissed any notion that Barbados should try to diversify at this time, arguing that such a move would be ill-advised before the country could first recover.
He said though Barbados was not back to where it expected to be prior to the April to December 2020 period, the economy is now heading in the right direction.
“If you look from April last year to December and compare it with April this year to December, we have four or five times the number of visitors. We are not back where we expect to be. We expect that by the end of the year, if things continue on track, we would be at roughly 40 per cent of pre-COVID levels of tourist arrivals. That means we would see some positive growth in the economy…some pickup,” declared Dr Greenidge, who is currently on secondment from the IMF.
He reiterated what various government officials have been saying that the predicted economic gains would depend on how the country manages the spread of the virus, particularly with respect to visitors arriving here.
“Given where we are, there are positive things. We expect that we will continue towards that direction. By the end of the year we would see a pick up, we will see an improvement in numbers, but we are not where we want to be.
“Where we want to be is all predicated on how we handle ourselves with respect to COVID, the spread of the virus, the containment. We recently opened up to allow more visitors to come in and these things are interrelated. We are getting there and we can get there once we settle down and do what we need to do,”
The top economist was also confident that the various speeches made by Prime Minister Mia Mottley on the world stage in recent times, particularly during the current climate change summit in Glasgow will attract more investors to Barbados.
He suggested that leadership with a plan matters much to investor confidence.
“When we look at economic modelling and economic growth, one of the key factors that generates investor confidence is confidence in a leader. You saw the tangible benefits…you just talked about the IDB loan to help with the [Harrison Point Isolation Facility]. People don’t just give you money for giving you money sake. They give you money when they think you have a plan, [when] they believe what you are saying is correct, [when] they could see that you are serious, you are committed,” Dr Greenidge declared.
He also identified as another example of confidence, the over 70,000 doses of vaccine donated to Barbados by the United States following a meeting between Prime Minister Mottley and US Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I have been in some of these meetings. I am not in Brussels or Glasgow, but I was in the Washington meeting [and] a number of investment persons expressed confidence. Don’t fool yourself, leadership matters. When a leader who is driven and has an idea, a plan, it may not be perfect, but you have a plan, people follow, people want to be part of that,” the senior advisor added. (EJ)
