BLP candidate shift ‘strategic recalibration’ ahead of possible poll, says analyst

The Barbados Labour Party’s decision not to reselect St Michael Central MP Arthur Holder, the Speaker of the House of Assembly, appears part of a broader strategic recalibration ahead of a possible early general election, said Political Scientist Devaron Bruce, who raised speculation of an imminent poll.

Speaking with Barbados TODAY following confirmation over the weekend that attorney-at-law Tyra Trotman will vie for the seat, Bruce said the development was “curious” but not entirely surprising, given the signals coming from within the party for some time.

“Well, I would say it is a curious development given the fact that Tyra Trotman has for some time been known to be the replacement candidate for the outgoing MP Arthur Holder,” Bruce said. “She has the endorsement of Arthur Holder, and she seemingly has the endorsement of Prime Minister Mottley.”

But he added that the entry of another contender, business executive Dr Lynette Holder, had raised questions.

“So, Dr Holder’s entry into the space is curious in that sense, given that for some time the Barbados Labour Party has seemingly been heading in the direction of having Tyra as their replacement candidate,” Bruce explained.

Bruce acknowledged that Trotman’s political background could generate internal friction: she previously served as president of the Young Democrats before switching political allegiance.

“There is obviously some discord due to the fact that Tyra is coming from the Democratic Labour Party,” he said. “But in truth and in fact, Tyra has not had a long-standing relationship with the Democratic Labour Party. She’s never been elected; she’s never been a member of government. She was simply a member of the Democratic Labour Party for a short period of time. 

“The direction that the DLP has taken is one that seemingly was not in the direction she wanted to go, and therefore she decided to cross the floor.”

While some party members may question the speed of her rise within the BLP, Bruce said the governing party’s leadership appears focused on political potential.

“Some may say that this may end up with some disagreements within the prime minister’s party, given her new entrance into the space and the quick elevation she would have received,” he said. “But the reality is that strategically, the powers that be within the Barbados Labour Party clearly see the potential that she has as a politician. Talent is talent, at least to their mindset.”

But Bruce warned that the BLP will still need to manage internal concerns from long-serving members who may feel overlooked.

“Now the question becomes how does the Barbados Labour Party address some of the individuals within the party who may feel slighted given their long-serving membership,” he said, adding that Dr Holder herself appeared to allude to that sentiment.

Bruce also dismissed anticipated criticism from the Democratic Labour Party, arguing that it may lack credibility.

“The individuals that will likely critique Tyra Trotman will be those from the Democratic Labour Party,” he said. “But Tyra is in a good position in the sense that the DLP is not in a great position to critique her for switching sides, given that their political leader has done the same and has been elected twice on a Barbados Labour Party ticket.”

He further suggested that recent developments strongly point to elections being imminent.

“Given what we have seen recently in terms of new nominations for BLP seats, including St Thomas and St Joseph in recent weeks, the likelihood of a general election in short order is high,” Bruce said.

At a Democratic Labour Party press conference on Monday, Senator Andre Worrell also questioned the timing of the move.

“We could be weeks away from the election, and you are now at the last minute trying to sneak a candidate into St Michael Central,” Senator Worrell claimed, suggesting the developments point to internal disunity.