Two political scientists say 2023 should be remembered as a year of growth and stability in the economy, while expressing hope that the Mia Mottley administration’s New Year resolutions will include tackling the cost of living and inefficiencies in the public service.
In an interview with Barbados TODAY, Devaron Bruce and Dr Kristina Hinds highlighted both the positive economic growth in 2023 and the challenges faced by Barbadians, including inflation and infrastructure issues.
Looking ahead to 2024, the experts suggested a focus on debt management, comprehensive road rehabilitation, and addressing societal issues such as child abuse while encouraging diversification in key sectors.
Bruce acknowledged the government’s achievements in fostering significant economic progress throughout the year, particularly in recovering from the economic challenges induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. While noting improvements in economic growth, he expressed concern that tourism numbers remained below pre-pandemic levels.
“I would say that the government certainly had a win regarding the growth of the Barbadian economy; as we know, due to COVID, we had some worrying numbers regarding growth. We have seen a decline, obviously, in our tourist arrivals because of COVID, but since then we have seen some improvements. Not to the extent that they should have been, [in] my opinion, [since] you have a situation where our tourism numbers are actually still lower than they were in 2019 prior to COVID, but we have seen some recovery as it relates to economic growth,” he said.
But Bruce also emphasised the persistent challenge of inflation, stating that despite economic growth, Barbadians have not fully benefited, citing their diminishing purchasing power: “I think that one of the major issues that continues to pull at the government would be the issue of inflation. Barbadians on a daily basis have not been able to reap the benefits of the economic growth because, quite frankly, a dollar does not stretch as far as it used to because of inflation.”
Highlighting the economic burdens faced by the average Barbadian, Bruce pointed to the rising cost of living, including elevated gas prices and increased food expenses.
He characterised the past year as challenging for both citizens and the government.
“You have the rest of the society – middle class – who have been [impacted] by the cost of living. We have seen $4 gas, for instance, for a majority if not all of the year; we have seen rising costs of food; we have seen rising costs as it relates to inflation so that I think has been the bugbear of the government for the last year,” the political scientist said.
Looking ahead to 2024, Bruce suggested that the government should focus on effective debt management.
He said: “One of the things the government really has to look towards regarding 2024, is how does the Barbados government become less reliant on debt. One of the ways to do that is really through growth. Now as I said, you have had some growth in the economy, but is it to the extent that it is offsetting the amount of debit you are taking on and offsetting some of the costs related to inflation? So I think debt management has to be one of the things the government looks at.”
Addressing infrastructure concerns, Bruce emphasised the need for a comprehensive road rehabilitation programme, urging a shift from temporary pothole repairs to sustainable solutions involving improved drainage, material quality, and contracts with repair responsibilities assigned to relevant entities.
“You have a situation where, quite frankly, you have been having a significant deterioration of the roads over the last couple months and last couple years, I would say, and we seem just to be spinning top in mud in the sense that you come, you do road repairs, and a couple weeks after the same repair, the [road] is back to where it was,” he said.
“There is clearly a need for a full road rehabilitation programme, and it can’t be a pothole programme. [There must be a] situation where there is sufficient drainage; where the water does not destroy the roads, for instance; the change in the materials, for instance; better contracts as it relates to the entities doing these roads [so that] if within a certain time period the road is damaged, it’s the responsibility now of that entity to repair [the road] as opposed to the responsibility of the government. Those are the things we have to start thinking about going forward.”
In her analysis, Dr Hinds acknowledged the growth projections for Barbados, with the Central Bank anticipating moderate economic growth of around 4.5 per cent in 2023.
Despite this positive outlook, she highlighted the need to address overlooked societal issues, specifically child abuse. While acknowledging government efforts with the Child Protection Bill, she stressed the importance of tangible actions to effectively combat child abuse.
“There are things that we don’t talk about a lot, but Barbados is a place that continues to have high levels of child sexual abuse and sexual assault, and these are things that we need to address along with the violent crimes, and I am not sure that this government or any government really has been particularly effective in dealing with these issues despite introducing things like the Child Protection Bill,” she said.
“We talk about gun crime, and those kinds of things when we are talking about crime, but we don’t talk about the other areas that I don’t think that we are doing enough to address. There is a lot more we need to do in that area [child abuse].”
Dr Hinds emphasised the necessity of focusing on diverse sectors beyond tourism, suggesting a greater emphasis on manufacturing, agriculture, and incentives for commercial involvement in agriculture to address public health concerns like non-communicable diseases.
She said: “As much as I would love to see an emphasis on other industries, it seems as if we are focused on tourism. We are focused on seeing how many hotels we can build, and tourist accommodations and what we can do to revitalise the city for tourism in addition to other purposes. It would be good if we tried to put some emphasis on seeing how we can diversify manufacturing in Barbados of products and not just importing.
“We [also] need to have far more emphasis on agriculture, we need to have incentives for people to be involved in agriculture commercially – and this is both for people’s well-being and also for things such as non-communicable diseases that we are addressing.”
