ANALYSTS WEIGH IN: Experts divided on whether Mottley’s moves signal early poll call

Recent announcements by Prime Minister Mia Mottley have sparked speculation that elections may be called sooner than expected, although they are constitutionally due in January 2027.

On Tuesday, the prime minister disclosed that teachers could regain their long-lost term vacation leave from as early as next year.

During the debate on the Public Service (Appointments) Bill, Mottley told the House that she had consulted with both the Barbados Union of Teachers (BUT) and the Barbados Secondary Teachers’ Union (BSTU) and had directed the relevant ministries to begin addressing the matter.

She also revealed that around 2 000 public servants will soon receive permanent appointments, alongside a series of initiatives including additional compensation and improved conditions of service for key frontline workers such as teachers, police officers, and nurses, with a comprehensive regrading exercise across the civil service expected to be completed next year.

Following the announcement, political scientists Peter Wickham and Devaron Bruce have offered slightly differing views on whether Mottley’s comments might signal an early election.

Wickham, a regional pollster and political commentator, believes it is highly possible for Mottley to call elections soon, citing her history of calling elections before they are due.

He said such a move would mirror that of Saint Lucia’s Prime Minister Philip J. Pierre, who called elections a year early.

“If you look at her history, the first election she called, she called it three years early. If she called an election in 2026, it would essentially be one year early.

“All things considered, it’s an early election, but not tremendously early. It’s not like the previous one because, within a year, the reasonable assumption is that one can do that.

So, I agree that seems to be a clear indication,”Wickham said.

“I get the impression that people would naturally want to wait until the five years have elapsed so the question is always whether, you know, you catch the population too early.

The other view is that some people like to vote as frequently as possible, and so again, that’s a perspective, and also a concern that the opposition is being taken advantage of in this thing.”

He stressed that the prime minister has undisputed constitutional power to call elections early, a practice exercised by other regional leaders.

“While the prime minister has the power to call an election early, it’s undisputed, and that’s something that she can do without sanction, and that’s the reality.

“For me personally, I’ve always liked the fixed-term concept. But you know, I also appreciate that it’s a power that the Prime Minister has and has exercised and across the region, leaders have exercised it in a similar fashion.

The election in Saint Lucia was a year early as well, so, you know, she would be in good company,” Wickham pointed out.

He believes that even with a year to go before the constitutionally due election, the opposition was still inadequately prepared.

“I don’t know that a year would make a difference because my concern with their readiness was the same a year ago, and my sense is that they haven’t really used the last year in a way that would suggest that an additional year would make a difference, to be honest.

“Over time the opposition has haemorrhaged, and as I said, they haven’t demonstrated the ability to use time wisely so I don’t know that it would make a difference,”Wickham said.

However, social scientist Devaron Bruce offers a different perspective, suggesting that the Prime Minister’s recent announcements regarding public worker appointments and long-term leave are not necessarily an indication of an early election call.

“It’s not unfair for persons to point to the fact that it may be electorally driven or politically driven, but that is not new in politics. I don’t think there’s anything to see on that matter, truth be told. This is well within the prerogative of the prime minister to appoint individuals….” Bruce explained.

He added that while election season is approaching, it is normal for governments to complete initiatives before an election.

“It’s not unusual again that a political party, a government, will ensure that if they had certain things that they wanted to get done, that they would do it before an election is called or close to when an election is called,” Bruce said.

“It’s not something that I particularly endorse, in the sense that I believe elections ought to be about fairness and democracy, but I mean, at the same time, I can’t fault a government or a political party for crossing T’s and dotting I’s.”

louriannegraham@barbadostoday.bb