One million Barbadians could be the boost the economy really needs, respected economist Jeremy Stephen has suggested, as he threw his strong support behind Government’s push towards a managed migration
programme.
Citing his own research, he said economic development would grow significantly if the Barbadian population were to quadruple its current size of 280,000 to at least one million.
Noting that Barbados may only be able to double its population in the next two decades, he stressed that no managed migration programme should come before assured investment in new sectors. He further argued that managed migration must only be for the purpose of filling voids in the skills needed for the new non-traditional sectors without risk of disenfranchising Barbadians.
Stephen told Barbados TODAY: “About 80 per cent of Barbados’ industry is directed inwards, so in other words, you make the money on activity happening on the ground.
“If you have an increase in population, especially from those that are brought in high-value areas, it is greater likelihood that the goods and services on the island can serve more people and as a result you will get an increase in GDP.”
Arguing that history is on his side, the UWI economist said all of the countries that have gone this route, numbering about 20 in the last two decades, have reaped significant economic benefits.
He explained: “There has never been a case in history where managed migration has not resulted in positive economic results for that country.
“In cases where you are purposely filling gaps that the current population is not prepared to take up for one reason or another, be it a lack of skill or resources, there is no evidence of displacement of locals.
“The only way you have displacement is if you bring people that can replace locals simply by under-pricing and not by skill.”
Noting that Barbados has suffered from low birth rate and high net migration over the last 20 years, Stephen argued that managed migration is the obvious solution, adding that it must be done on a large scale in order for it to make sense.
He said: “Any country that has a high net migration will always have a drag on its economic growth. In addition, the cost of living is becoming so high that there is now a distortion between the public pension [NIS] and what persons actually need to survive.
“The way you fund pensions is through birth rates, through population growth and through productivity.
“Persons who will be accessing the pensions in another five years will be the first persons to begin to feel the impact of these problems, although we are seeing them to some extent already.”
But when asked about housing that many people on a 166 square mile landmass, Stephen explained that this would require a major shift in culture, as Barbadians will need to get used to the idea of living in apartments in high-rise buildings, instead of houses with substantial yard space.
The economist said: “This is going to be one of the major adjustments for Barbadians because given the size of the island. It means that we are going to have to build up and not out.
“In other words, people would have to become accustomed to living in apartments.
“It may have to be similar to the NHC projects but much better managed than before.
“I believe that there are many young Barbadians that would be okay with this type of accommodation, but the question is if the older parts of the population will also be willing to do so.”
Stephen also called for the ramping up of social services, which he believes would be possible if there is an influx of persons and businesses contributing to the public coffers.
He said: “You are going to have a lot more tax revenue coming in but when that happens, you have to re-direct towards four key areas; healthcare, education, housing and water.
“There has to be major development over a ten to 20-year period in order to sustain the population increase.”
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1.Our road infrastructure couldn’t handle that much people and that alone is no easy fix and don’t even get me started on public transport.Barbados would had to look at a different system all together, quick point to point like monorail. A underground subway might only contaminate the water bed.
2. “Noting that Barbados has suffered from low birth rate and high net migration over the last 20 years.” Well when people ain’t see any opportunities here what you expect them to do, why bring a kid in the world when you’re barely making it by.
3.where all the job creation going come from for our growth to 1million people? We already banking on investors both private and other nations outside the country. That are not by obliged to invest into Barbados any more than they have already.China already own a good piece of the rock, we going call up Russia next or UAE and hope that America gets jealous.
How do you propose to accommodate these 750 thousand plus people?
Where would they live, what about the infrastructure of the roads, schools, health etc?
If with 280 thousand and the roads are so congested, even another 10 thousand will cause more issues.
“I believe that there are many young Barbadians that would be okay with this type of accommodation, but the question is if the older parts of the population will also be willing to do so.”
Stephen, when you get old will you be willing to live in those types of accommodations (high rise) for the sake of population increase? I cannot imagine a million people living on this little rock.
Steupes.You can’t even feed or help those who live here nor find jobs for the thousands leaving secondary school and university and talking big talk about migration at this hard times.
Monkey see monkey do.The big countries over and away got the resources to handle this .
Hmmm, Respected economist but no! I’m sorry but there are always arguments for and people always see the plus and the benefits but in the end the consequences are disastrous. There was a good rationale for companies switching from bottles to plastics and 20 years on it’s a huge problem for the world. There was great economic benefits for the industrial period and then the earth’s layer got destroyed. Barbados can hardly handle the current nightmare of traffic congestion with it’s own normal to slightly higher population as it is and leaving home half an hour earlier often makes no difference, Barbados’ hospital can barely cope with the patients it receive and i’m sure we believe that they do the best they can even if some think it’s not good enough, Barbados have built several homes for people to rent only for them to be left unoccupied or filled with people who can’t afford to pay and this does not include the several luxury home projects that never finish. Barbados has largely rejected buildings which are too tall even if they are bringing hundreds of millions of dollars to the economy so who says that people want to look at massively tall buildings even if they for housing….Barbados is still very much an island and i’m not a tourist but i’m not convinced that people want to leave New York or Jolly London to see more buildings. Lastly, Barbadian Economists love to compare Barbados to Singapore but only God Knows Why. Singapore is more of a city than an island, it’s physically connected or close to a huge land mass of a relatively known country of Malaysia, it’s transportation issues would very different to that of our little islands of the Caribbean and the list goes on and on. It’s great to be UWI educated and have a point to prove but let’s not get ahead of ourselves in the name of “must do something”, we must be rational, honest and show the whole story. How about let’s really clean house first and make use of all the things started but unfinished, finished but unused before we go trying to make a total, unwanted and unchangeable overhaul.
Housing, Health Care, Water ,Schools , traffic, and Crime must be carefully look at. It just be just MONEY.
This economist has as we say hit the nail on the head. He is right on, managed migration , I called it what is needed is managed immigration. Obviously the economist has studied the countries who have benefited from managed immigration , namely Canada, Australia and some extent the USA before Donald Trump.
Canada and Australia have selective immigration policies , they take in the best and brightest from around the world and Barbados should adopt a similar immigration policy , firstly from the other Caribbean territories and then to supplement the required number go outside the region.
I am in agreement with Mr. Stephens in that we have to move towards a definitive managed migration strategy for all the reasons he outlined and to achieve the economies of scale we need to make various goods and services more affordable. Yes we do need to work assiduously to ensure that the current state of affairs with regards to social services is vastly improved so that overtime they can be expanded to adequately service expanded demand.
However, these are things that will happen overtime and can happen simultaneously, we just have to decisive and efficient in what we are doing. Furthermore we need to increase our level of productivity to bring about the outcomes we would want. However, we must adapt and move in these directions otherwise country will be left behind and large swathes of our population will remain in poverty and struggle to meet their basic needs for generations to come. so we got to make the hard decisions now and be prepared to come out of our comfort zone on a number of issues.