UWI researcher’s case for expanded COVID tests

A UWI researcher has endorsed the Government’s decision to expand testing of the Barbadian population for the COVID-19 virus which has so far claimed six lives here.

Dr Dwayne Devonish, Senior Lecturer in Management Studies at UWI at Cave Hill outlines his position in a paper entitled Towards an understanding of the data and statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic: exploring some implications.

He said: “The tested people in our country are not truly representative of the wider population, reinforcing the need for wider testing within the country for a more accurate assessment of the true state of the outbreak.”

After receiving more than 11,000 test kits and over 780 personal protective equipment (PPE0 from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Minister of Health and Wellness Lt Col. Jeffrey Bostic said the contribution was timely, as testing needed to be expanded so the country could maintain the containment of the disease.

On Monday, Lt. Col. Bostic told a news conference that there will be an escalation in the numbers of people being tested for COVID-19 “in short order”.

And Dr Devonish has strongly suggested that widening the scope of testing would influence the timing of the reopening of the country.

The UWI lecturer said: “Overall, any decision to reopen an economy or to prolong the shutdown situation depends heavily on the ramping up of the testing activity within the country as well as the readiness of the national healthcare systems, business/organisational and public readiness/preparedness to operate under ‘the new normal’.

“Essentially, the number of tests per confirmed case should be ramped up as the number of confirmed cases per population size increases.  In Barbados, 75 cases divided by a population of 285,000 (multiplied by 1,000) results in 0.26 confirmed cases per 1000 persons (infection rate) against 14.17 tests for every confirmed case (1,063 tests divided by the number of confirmed cases).”

The management lecturer drew reference to Britain’s COVID situation to further explain his contention.

He argued that if one were to take that country’s 124,743 cases and divide them by its population of 66.65 million, it would result in 1.87 confirmed cases per 1,000 people as against 3.18 tests for every confirmed case.

“Hence, we can see that the outbreak spread or confirmed infection rate is more than seven times higher in the UK than in Barbados, but we have done a much higher number of tests per confirmed case compared to the UK,” Dr Devonish said.

The academic went on to observe that Britain was way behind in its testing compared to many countries, especially measured against the spread of the outbreak in that country.

“However, a caution here must be noted – one might think that given this finding that Barbados’ larger number of performed tests for each confirmed case paints a much more accurate picture of the true number of cases in the country (compared to the UK).”

“But recall that Barbados’ testing situation has been more restricted/targeted to high-risk groups, symptomatic and severe cases, and suspected cases (those being referred by health care agencies and those revealed through contact tracing) as opposed to following a widespread testing regime,” the scholar declared.

Barbados TODAY has reached out to the UWI lecturer for further comment on his findings.

emmanueljoseph@barbadostoday.bb