It may appear to some that continued debate is akin to flogging a dead horse when we echo the increasing unease about the staging of a general election at this time, especially when we are under no urgency that we know of or constitutional pressures to return to the poll.
The growing anxiety being expressed by ordinary Barbadians is not unwarranted. For the information released today from top officials of the Ministry of Health and Wellness about the developing third wave of COVID-19 is enough to unsettle even those who are strong in their religious faith.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Kenneth George described what is projected to be unleashed over the next six to seven weeks as an approaching “hurricane”.
He warned that while our geographical position in the island chain has provided us with some protection from the worst of what the annual hurricane season portends, he cautions that there is no hiding from the Omicron variant.
Dr George’s deputy Dr Anton Best presented the unvarnished facts on the table. The Ministry of Health, leaned on the Cave Hill Campus of The University of the West Indies (UWI) to help them project what was likely to face us over the next few weeks.
The news is not good for those who were hoping that COVID-19 was dissipating after two years of a sustained onslaught.
Dr George’s use of the word hurricane to describe the need to prepare for Omicron is instructive. The ominous predictions from the UWI are nothing short of sobering.
With a worst-case scenario of 3,500 cases per day at the peak of the wave and hospitalisations of 700 per day, it appears apocalyptic for a health care system that is struggling and confronted with a near month-long nurses’ strike.
Were there a bright side to all, it would be the evidence so far from other countries that while hospitalisations are on the rise, the death rate from Omicron does not compare to the devastation caused by the Delta variant.
The fact that Delta is still circulating in the population along with Omicron, there is good reason to be concerned. Moreover, the disclosure by French authorities that another highly contagious variant has been uncovered in that European country, suggest 2022 is going to be more of the same.
In this circumstance, we can understand the evidence of voter apathy and worry about the January 19 poll. Thankfully, the campaign is an extremely short one, even though a two-week campaign during an expected six-week long COVID-19 wave, still represents a significant exposure period.
The CMO and his deputy are paying close attention to large scale isolation, with self-isolation forming a critical part of the national health emergency response.
With people expected to stay in home isolation for at least 10 days with no mixing with others in their households, it is going to be a testing time for thousands as not only the infected are impacted but those who reside with them.
A critical question that needs to be answered is when do UWI modellers and the Ministry of Health expect the island to face the peak of this new wave? Will it coincide with the general election?
These are important queries that will help to guide the public’s response. We do not have the resources, at this stage, to monitor possibly 6,000 or more people who may be in home isolation if the UWI models hold.
The country will be dependent on infected persons taking personal responsibility to stay at home and away from people for nearly two weeks, even though most may be symptomless.
This is a big ask for citizens who are already COVID-fatigued after so many months of disruption and dislocation.
In the United States, the situation with the Omicron variant is equally disturbing. The US too is examining the results of modelling on the impact of Omicron.
A report by National Public Radio (NPR) said the University of Texas predicts a scenario in which the Omicron variant “only intensifies the Delta surge that is underway”. However, the most pessimistic scenario suggests “Omicron could trigger a tidal wave of infections that would be worse than last winter’s massive surge. And by around the end of January, more than 500,000 people could catch the virus every day on average, which is more than double the peak reached last winter.”
What we are certain of in Barbados is that after January 19, whoever is successful at the polls, will be confronted with the enormous challenge of fixing a COVID-battered nation and a highly impatient population seeking resolution to a widening range of economic and social problems.
