Weather predictions of a sweltering heat wave over the next three months have dairy farmers forecasting a bleak milk output.
And with milk production still not fully recovered from last year’s record heat, consumers are already reporting shortages at retail outlets. With the influx of winter season tourists demand appears to have risen, Barbados TODAY was told, though this could not be immediately confirmed.
Amid the grim outlook, dairy farmers’ plans for the government to shore up their investment in imported heifers to offset the losses appear to have hit a snag.
In its latest publication, the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) calls for near-record warm temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean from March to May, as the El Niño phenomenon wanes in the Pacific Ocean.
The region will transition into a much warmer than usual heat season with recurrent heat waves as early as April, according to the CariCOF outlook.
President of the Barbados Beef and Dairy Farmers’ Association Annette Beckett told Barbados TODAY on Wednesday that there was little to nothing farmers could do against extreme heat. With conditions likely to be the same as last year’s, she anticipated low supplies of milk to Pine Hill Dairy, the island’s lone milk processor.
Many farmers’ herds also did not recover from last year’s scorching heat that put the animals under severe heat stress, adding to the dairy industry’s woes.
August 2023 was the hottest August on record, surpassing pre-industrial age averages. It was also the second hottest month ever recorded – bested only by the previous month.
As farmers grappled with blistering stress on heat-sensitive heifers, they reported a 15 to 20 per cent decline in milk production.
PHD parent Banks Holdings Limited recorded milk intake levels for August and September at 7.2 per cent lower than 2022’s output and 9.3 per cent lower than in 2021.
“There is no strategy to deal with extremely high temperatures,” Beckett explained. “We can deal with above average but not extreme. What you do for above average you do for extreme but it doesn’t work and that is why we are in the position we are in.
“Last year, we would have done everything we could have and we still saw the cows not eating, barely able to get to the water. The milk production went down and in some cases, the animals developed tick fever because they multiply better and are more resilient in warm conditions. So they infest the cows, and when that happens, that cow has a problem for five to six days and if you have to treat it, depending on the medication you use, you cannot milk it for another four or five days. Then, having not been milked for all that time, that cow has to get back its usual milk production level and it never gets back where it left; it has to be built back up.”
Based on the heat forecast for the next three months, the dairy farmers’ spokeswoman said she expected a repeat of last year’s decline with output unlikely to pick up for several months, possibly while Barbados hosts the T20 Cricket World Cup in June.
Beckett said: “Last year we made sure the cows had as much water as they needed and made sure that after they grazed they had somewhere cool to shade. But the animals stopped feeding and when that happens, the heifers go back eating when they decide. It could be the next day or the next five days; that is just how it works. So that immediately affects the production.
Some of the cows that had problems last year have not yet reached their maximum capacity after going through the hot weather.”
Last month, she announced that the BDPA wanted to import 200 pregnant heifers. The plan was to get the heifers by March but the importation depended heavily on a rebate system from the government.
Beckett said a paper was written to the Ministry of Agriculture indicating the dairy industry was in dire straits and the importation would stop the industry from collapsing.
But she said the association did not receive any update on the support mechanism which ministers were to approve. Farmers were paying close attention to parliament’s Estimates to see if it would be announced for the new fiscal year that begins on April 1, she added.
The investment by the farmers is about $1.5 million but Beckett said they needed the price support system as they are still cash-strapped from heifer imports in 2020 and 2016.
When contacted, BHL country manager Safia London promised the dairy would issue a statement on the situation on Thursday.
