Will one-party dominance be the new normal?

Timing is everything in politics. When the right circumstances align — public sentiment, economic conditions, and international affairs — they create a rare opportunity for bold moves and lasting influence. Some leaders master this art, seizing the moment with strategic finesse, while others struggle against the tide of unfavourable conditions.

The current political landscape in Barbados underscores the formidable position of the ruling Barbados Labour Party (BLP), which, under Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s leadership, has maintained unbroken electoral dominance since its historic 30-0 sweep in 2018.

This landslide victory helped to dismantle the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) as a major political force. The party had spent a decade grappling with economic instability, leadership crises, and public dissatisfaction — a period also marred by the global financial crisis, the untimely passing of Prime Minister David Thompson, and a leadership vacuum that left urgent national challenges unaddressed.

Freundel Stuart, who served as Prime Minister from 2010 to 2018, was viewed by many as not distinctly helpful to the DLP’s cause.

While Stuart maintained a reputation for legal expertise and measured decision-making, his leadership was often perceived as lacking the charisma and urgency needed to mobilise national confidence during a period of economic uncertainty.

This disconnect, one can argue, contributed to the DLP’s inability to inspire renewed voter trust, culminating in its historic electoral defeats in 2018 and 2022.

Some analysts have even argued that Stuart’s tenure, rather than strengthening the party’s standing, inadvertently deepened its institutional challenges, leaving the DLP struggling to rebuild even years after his exit. However, others credit him with providing a degree of stability during turbulent times.

Now, seven years after its political and institutional implosion, the DLP remains in a state of instability, still battling to regain its footing despite securing a place in the Lower House through the defection of Christ Church South MP Ralph Thorne from the BLP.

This lone parliamentary placement, though powerful at times, offers little leverage against the BLP’s continued electoral dominance.

The absence of a coherent strategy, coupled with lingering internal discord, continues to hinder the DLP’s resurgence, making its political revival an increasingly difficult endeavour. With Prime Minister Mottley steering the country through domestic and global challenges, the ruling administration benefits from a moment in which political stability outweighs opposition momentum.

With constituents of St James North expected to go to the polls on May 21, one could argue that the BLP’s strategy appears to mirror its approach in the 2020 St George North by-election, where a favoured candidate was positioned to seamlessly take over from the outgoing MP. In this case, Chad Blackman’s high-profile diplomatic experience and subsequent ministerial appointments have bolstered his standing.

On the other side, the DLP has put forward Felicia Dujon, a university lecturer and human rights activist. While her candidacy brings a fresh perspective, political analysts suggest she may face an uphill battle against Blackman, given the BLP’s entrenched support in the constituency and the party’s well-oiled electoral machinery.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) latest assessment of Barbados paints a picture of strong economic performance, with growth, slowing inflation, and improved foreign reserves. The government’s successful implementation of the Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT 2022) plan has been a key factor.

However, when it comes to voter sentiment in St James North, the impact of macroeconomic success is not always straightforward. While national economic stability can boost confidence in the ruling administration, local concerns — such as the high cost of living, crime, and constituency-specific challenges — often weigh more heavily on voters’ minds.

The BLP’s candidate, Chad Blackman, benefits from the government’s strong economic track record, but the DLP’s Felicia Dujon may find traction if she effectively connects with voters on everyday struggles that macroeconomic reports do not fully capture. If constituency-level frustrations — such as rising prices, youth unemployment, and crime — dominate discussions, the DLP could gain ground despite the broader economic success of the government.

The question also remains: Can the DLP recalibrate its political identity, consolidate leadership, and rekindle public trust, or has Barbados permanently shifted toward one-party dominance?