Forecasters warn of busy hurricane season, predict surge in major storms

Barbadians were told to brace for a potentially active Atlantic hurricane season, with meteorologists predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes June to November, according to early projections.

Deputy Director of the Barbados Meteorological Services, Brian Murray, confirmed the figures are based on early projections from Colorado State University and the University of Arizona.

“The prediction…based on their early forecast, is 17 named storms. Of those 17 named storms, nine are forecast to become hurricanes and four are forecast to become major hurricanes, which is Category 3 or higher,” Murray told Barbados TODAY.

Last year’s predictions were for 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes. The actual numbers turned out to be 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five of those became major hurricanes.

The season was most memorable for Hurricane Beryl which made landfall in Barbados on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane, causing significant damage to the fishing industry and coastal infrastructure, though sparing the island a direct hit by the hurricane’s centre. Beryl’s storm’s outer bands, still at Category 3, brought strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surges that impacted the entire coastal area. It was the earliest Category 5 storm in the Atlantic on record.

Murray assured that the Met Office has already taken steps to ensure Barbados is well prepared for the upcoming season, which officially begins on June 1.

“We made sure that our radar is working,” Murray said. “Our Doppler radar is operational — that’s one of the first things, as it tells you exactly where the centre of the tropical cyclone is. It went through some maintenance checks early and it’s fully functional.

He added that emergency infrastructure has also been strengthened. “We’ve made sure that our offices are fully equipped with emergency and standby generators. Our emergency radios are also operational.”

Earlier this year, the met office received new technology aimed at improving forecast accuracy.

“We received some buoys that will give us a more accurate representation of the height of the waves and swells,” Murray revealed. “The installation has been pretty good so far. They put us in a better position to accurately monitor the actual height of the waves and sea swells whenever a system is in the area.”

He explained the difference since acquiring the buoys: “These buoys are expected to reduce the reliance on models alone. Normally, we would rely on models to tell us how high the waves are going to be.”

Murray also said public outreach remains a key focus. “We’ve got the usual radar and radio announcements, and we’re also using videos on our social media. That has been very helpful, especially last year, and we will continue that this year,” he said.

The official forecast from the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is still pending. Murray advised the public to be on the alert for these predictions.

The Donald Trump administration proposed significant budget cuts to NOAA, including its research arm, which conducts critical weather and climate research, including hurricane forecasting.
These proposed cuts, which were often framed as targeting climate change research, have raised concerns about the potential impact on NOAA’s ability to provide accurate weather forecasts and warnings.

louriannegraham@barbadostoday.bb