CDEMA warns region to be on guard despite prediction of less active season

Though forecasters are predicting a less active Atlantic hurricane season this year, Caribbean countries are being warned not to lower their guard, as intense rainfall, flash flooding, drought and dangerous heat conditions remain major threats.

Executive Director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), Elizabeth Riley issued the caution during the agency’s annual regional press conference ahead of the start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.

“The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30th, but we in the Caribbean know that readiness cannot be confined to those dates as we experience many types of hazards throughout the year,” Riley said.

She noted that while the region enters the season with “experience, lessons learned, partnerships, and a renewed commitment to readiness”, climate conditions remain unpredictable and dangerous.

According to Riley, the latest climate outlook from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), released on May 27, predicted a season with approximately 12 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“This year, we’re closely monitoring the guidance from our regional and international climate partners,” she said, adding that the season is expected to be “potentially less active than in recent years”.

However, Riley warned that warmer sea surface temperatures around the northern Caribbean could still fuel significant rainfall during storm systems.

“We also expect that this can result in intense rainfall events, which could create extremely high flood and flash flood risks across many areas in the Caribbean,” she explained.

The CDEMA head also said the ongoing drought conditions already affecting several participating states are expected to persist.

“Drought conditions, which are currently being experienced in a number of our participating states, are expected to continue and potentially expand by late 2026,” Riley said,while acknowledging the possibility that seasonal rainfall could temporarily ease some water shortages.

In addition to flooding and drought concerns, Riley pointed to growing risks associated with extreme heat, particularly during August and September.

“CIMH is also predicting intense heat conditions during the months of August and September, with more frequent heat waves, warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures [that] will result in increased heat stress risks,” she said.

“This is important because we’ve noticed over recent years that we have to pay greater attention to the hazard of excess heat.”

Riley noted that the United States-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also forecasting a below-normal season, predicting between eight and 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.

She said both the CIMH and NHC forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are expected to play a major role in suppressing storm activity this year.

Still, Riley stressed that the region cannot afford complacency.

“As reinforced by Hurricane Melissa last year, the key message that we want to share is that it only takes one hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean to create an active hurricane season,” she said. “Therefore thorough preparations should be made every season regardless of the predicted activity.”

(SB)