Dry spell: El Niño phenom weakens rainfall as drought warnings persist into wet season

Despite the start of the wet and hurricane season, Barbados is likely to remain in drought for months, with forecasters warning that suppressed rainfall linked to El Niño could extend dry conditions into early next year.

In an official update issued from Bridgetown, the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) said that while the change in season typically brings more frequent showers and thunderstorms, persistent El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean are heavily suppressing expected rainfall levels.

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This shift alters global atmospheric circulation patterns, often weakening the moisture-bearing systems that typically bring rainfall to the Caribbean. 

For Barbados, this means fewer and less sustained rain showers, increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry spells and worsening drought conditions even during the wet season which began two weeks ago.

Total rainfall up to the end of May was near the historical average at 278.4 millimetres, but the vast majority of this precipitation (205.7 mm) fell over just a few days in January and March, the met office said. 

This uneven distribution has left vegetation highly stressed, particularly across the southern and south-western districts of the island. Although recent tropical waves have crossed the region, they have offered only limited, short-term relief to the ongoing dry conditions.

Looking ahead over the next three to five months, weather experts project that rainfall will remain near or below normal through October, as El Niño conditions are forecast to strengthen with at least a 75 per cent probability.

Forecasters warn that while some isolated, high-impact heavy rainfall events may cause localised flooding in low-lying areas, these brief downpours do not efficiently replenish the island’s freshwater aquifers, which require prolonged, gentle rainfall to recover.

Compounding the water scarcity, the island has also entered its annual heat season. While temperatures are not expected to break the records set in 2023 and 2024 – partially mitigated by brisk surface winds – above-normal temperatures and rising sea surface temperatures are still predicted.

This combination poses a heightened risk of heat stress for outdoor workers, children, the elderly and vulnerable individuals with chronic health conditions, especially during increasingly humid days and warm nights.

The BMS has indicated that drought alert levels will likely be elevated until October, with official warnings currently set for June and July, followed by drought watches from August through to October.

Met officials have also expressed concern that the combination of high temperatures, below-normal rainfall and strong winds during the current wet season could lead to a significantly drier start to 2027, potentially triggering further drought warnings towards the end of this year.

(RR)