The ability of Barbados to get its economy back on track hinges as much on a return of the tourism sector, as it does on the country achieving some level of herd immunity and keeping out the highly infectious COVID-19 variants.
Just next door in Trinidad and Tobago, there is confirmation of the presence of the deadly Brazilian variant. And we have already had cases of the British variant in Barbados, though very little has been said about its prevalence. Some experts have even proffered that it may have been the British variant responsible for the sudden burst of cases last December.
Most Barbadians will admit to a high degree of anxiety about a return to mass tourism. They know that this economy is literally hanging on by a string, as we live on borrowed reserves from international financial institutions. But without the tourism sector’s renewal, it could all come crashing down.
The ominous warning last week from Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados Cleviston Haynes, that the country simply cannot afford more shutdowns, should provide us with enough incentive to try harder to beat this disease. God knows it is hanging around like a ‘life sore’.
“We do believe that the economy has buffers to be able to withstand the shocks, but if you keep getting beaten up, then eventually those buffers are eroded.
“Clearly, that is not something we want to see. We recognise that we are approaching the hurricane season. One does not want to see too many more shutdowns because every time that you shut down, you lose momentum, and you create uncertainty. We don’t want to have those shutdowns; they are costly,” Governor Haynes cautioned in his last address to the country during his first quarter economic review.
The economic picture left little to smile about. With a near 20 per cent contraction in economic activity and four consecutive quarters of double-digit economic decline, it does not take an economic guru to tell Barbadians that the country is in deep trouble.
Even the highly experienced Central Bank governor, who has been around for the near 10-year recessionary conditions caused by the global financial crisis that pummeled the Barbados economy, warned us not to hold him to his word on possible growth. The one to three per cent acceleration he predicted for later this year, is still very iffy.
Haynes knows only God can tell us what is around the corner. The local and global conditions are simply too unstable.
With the country deep in recession, our economic planner may be betting on the island possibly topping the 100 000 mark for COVID-19 vaccinations of the adult population.
It would appear the National Vaccination Team, led by Dr Elizabeth Ferdinand and Major David Clarke, could deliver that goal for the administration very soon. Already, more than 76 000 adults have already been vaccinated and more than 25 466 fully inoculated.
This should certainly ease some of the tension bubbling at the surface among the population eager for a return to normalcy and for foreign dollars to again start flowing through the island’s economic veins.
Word from the various cruise lines that they will be home porting in Barbados and resuming cruising later this year must be good news, at least for some among us.
Our benevolence to the international cruise sector in 2019, when they were desperate for assistance with getting their crews and passengers back to their home countries, appears to be paying dividends.
Our neighbours to the south in Trinidad and Tobago must certainly be second-guessing their decision to close the country’s borders. Even with the draconian measures that deny access, even to their own citizens, the COVID-19 situation has changed little. In fact, it appears worse than those islands that left their borders open but put in place strict measures for entry.
Trinidad’s Health Minister Terrence Deyalsingh announced recently, that for three weeks, there will be no further in-house dining at restaurants, bars, casinos, and cinemas. There will be no gathering of more than five persons, and all beaches will close, again.
Deyalsingh was most concerned that the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases in the republic was now 42 a day.
Likewise, we should have reason to pause here. That at a time when we are engaged in a massive and highly successful COVID-19 vaccination programme, a midnight to 5 a.m. curfew, strict protocols for everyday activities, mandated mask wearing in public, we still recorded 30 cases in one day.
The battle with this disease is certainly not going to be won overnight. There will be no declaration of victory over the unseen enemy. It will a long, difficult fight.
With this in mind, it will be extremely important that the country adopts a red-alert approach to the disease as we open up again to mass tourism. Memories of December 2020 are still fresh in our minds and sticking closely to advice from our health professionals will be critical.
Despite the obvious challenge between balancing the economy and the society, the society has to be the winner in this case.
