A leading local analyst is contending that the scenario presented by Thursday’s general election defeat for the New National Party (NNP) of Grenadian Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell cannot be applied to the Barbados political landscape.
Peter Wickham, who is also a regional pollster, said on Friday that while the victory by the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) led by the relatively unknown Dickon Mitchell was achieved following two successive clean sweeps by the outgoing ruling party, the matrix is not the same.
The Barbados Labour Party (BLP) led by Prime Minister Mia Mottley displaced the main Opposition Democratic Labour Party (DLP) by taking all 30 seats in Parliament in the 2018 general election and repeated the clean sweep in January this year.
First-timer to political leadership Dr Ronnie Yearwood is now heading the DLP after succeeding Verla De Peiza who resigned in the wake of this year’s 30-nil beating.
Preliminary results from the Parliamentary Electoral Office (PEO) last night gave the 44-year-old attorney-at-law and new Grenada Prime Minister a nine-seat victory in the 15-member Parliament.
But in his analysis today, Wickham said the comparison between Barbados and Grenada is “kind of striking”. However, he sees “important” distinguishing features which the DLP could take advantage of.
“I am more struck by the distinguishing features. Yes, you are dealing with a government that has been able to achieve a clean sweep on two occasions as has been the case of Grenada,” Wickham observed.
“The difference in Barbados is that the seat count is larger. We have 30 seats and not 15. But more importantly, the Grenada government of Keith Mitchell is an aged government with a leader that is also quite aged. Numerically, Dr Keith Mitchell was 75 years old and in terms of leadership, he has been cumulatively, prime minister for close to 25 years,” Wickham told Barbados TODAY.
“So, technically speaking, he has had a long run and I don’t think you can say the same for Prime Minister Mottley. So the exhaustion factor which I think is critical in this election would not be there in the case of Barbados just yet,” the pollster argued.
“It’s useful because I think it gives us a promise. But the more applicable countries in my opinion would be Dominica, St Kitts and Nevis and to a lesser extent, St Vincent and the Grenadines. But I don’t believe that Barbados fits that matrix,” the well-known political scientist said.
Professor of Constitutional Governance and Politics at the Cave Hill Campus of the University of the West Indies (UWI) Cynthia Barrow-Giles also weighed in on the outcome of the Grenada poll and its significance to Barbados.
“The results of the general election in Grenada are no less than a phenomenal victory for the opposition which has been struggling for relevance since the collapse of the ruling party under Prime Minister Tillman Thomas,” Professor Barrow-Giles recalled.
“While in parts of the Caribbean we have witnessed remarkable collapses of ruling parties such as in the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, never before has a party which had completely dominated electoral politics to the extent that the NNP did, experienced such a defeat,” she declared.
“However,” she added, “the collapse did not occur in a vacuum and we need to take into consideration the combination of events and developments, that is, the confluence of forces which resulted in this victory.
“Not to be discounted obviously is the restructuring of the NDC under a parliamentary inexperienced political leader, but one who had the ability to speak to the people about issues that resonated across Grenada and for which the NNP appeared to have had no response,” the UWI professor pointed out.
She also identified the “waning popularity” of Keith Michell and the “failure to engage” in succession planning as well as “politically bad” decisions made in relation to workers’ pensions.
The constitutional expert also suggested that in the context of these issues, and especially the declining support for Mitchell, it required that candidates pay specific attention to their constituencies.
“As to the lessons for the rest of the Caribbean, what is clear is that no party can afford to become complacent whatever the magnitudes of their parliamentary victory,” she cautioned.
“It is equally true,” Professor Barrow-Giles warned, “that the opposition must be prepared, otherwise in the absence of such organisation and mobilisation, there will not be a repeat of Grenada in countries like Barbados where there has generally been relative electoral stability, unlike the volatility of the electorate in the Bahamas and St Lucia.”
Responding to the “historic” victory of Dickon Mitchell, DLP leader Dr Yearwood said that in the same way Mitchell and his party readied themselves following two defeats and won, the DLP will also put in the work and allow the results to take care of themselves.
“We will do the same, we will put in the work. We will go and meet Barbadians where they are and we will fight for them. We will[tackle] their issues and we will not let them walk alone,” he told Barbados TODAY.
He expressed delight at the NDC’s triumph. The new Prime Minister Mitchell attended the DLP’s special conference when Yearwood was recently elected leader.
In fact, the DLP leader said Mitchell and his NDC are espousing similar policies to those of the DLP.
“I think that Grenada is in capable hands. It’s really good to see that my generation step forward into leadership and be in charge. I think it can only be a good signal for the Caribbean,” the new DLP president stated.
He noted that the two parties have been practising the same kind of “new politics” of not engaging in the traditional opposition politics of criticising for criticising sake.
But Dr Yearwood declined to get into any “crystal ball scenarios” about whether the Grenada election outcome holds any clues to the DLP faring better at the next election.
“It is encouraging to see what he represents for Grenada and the Caribbean…and it’s also encouraging to know that the type of politics and what he put forward is similar to what the Democratic Labour Party is doing as we ready ourselves and that’s reality…We are coming from two defeats,” he acknowledged.
Meanwhile, in a brief post on her Twitter page, Prime Minister Mottley today congratulated the new Grenada Head of Government and said she looked forward to working with him. emmanueljoseph@barbadostoday.bb
