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Predictions of continued high temperatures in 2024

by Barbados Today
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It was extremely hot in the Caribbean in 2023. And the projections are that the heat will continue into the new year.

Climatologist at the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Dr Cédric Van Meerbeeck, says that even though the Caribbean is accustomed to the heat, higher temperatures are negatively impacting residents of the region.

“So it’s time to stop thinking that the only thing about our climate that affects us is rain, flooding and hurricanes,” he said, amid concerns that over the coming months, the Pacific will very likely transition into El Niño while ocean temperatures in and around the Caribbean are expected to be well above-average.

El Niño refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

The last 12 months were the hottest the earth has ever recorded, according to a report by Climate Central, a nonprofit science research group. It said burning gasoline, coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels that release planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide, and other human activities, caused the unnatural warming.

Over the course of the year, 7.3 billion people, or 90 per cent of humanity, endured at least 10 days of high temperatures that were made three times more likely because of climate change.

Climatologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology Dr Cédric Van Meerbeeck

On average, Jamaica, for example, experienced high temperatures made four times more likely by climate change during the last 12 months, making it the country where climate change was most powerful at work.

So it is no wonder that the 15-member Caribbean Community (CARICOM) looked forward with great expectations to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28)  that was held in  Dubai from November 30 to December 12.

Prior to the event, Dominica’s Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit had told reporters, “We need this COP to be one of the actions that deliver on the promises of developed countries to provide the much-needed financing to tackle the worsening climate situation.”

So did it achieve that objective? Skerrit, the CARICOM chairman, acknowledged that while there had been advances, “those advances are all still in the form of promises”.

“This is more than 30 years we have been negotiating an understanding of what needs to be done to address the issue of climate change, the cause of it and also the impact of it on those who are suffering the brunt of it, that is to say, countries like ourselves in the Caribbean, the Pacific and Africa.

“Every COP there is a promise made of some new pot of money…but the reality is those monies are not being seen or…realised or we have access to,” he said, noting that one of the major movements at COP28 was pledging to the loss and damage fund.

“Not a significant amount was pledged in relation to what is required and really this is to seek to operationalise the Paris Accord of 2015. So it is left to us to see the when and the how (and) when we will start accessing those funds and how we will start accessing these funds,” Skerrit added.

A major agreement to transition away from fossil fuel use has been regarded among the highlights of COP28, but for Guyana’s Vice President Dr Bharrat Jagdeo, there were many disappointing outcomes of the conference.

He said the main disappointment has been the lack of progress on developing carbon markets.

“We thought that advancing the carbon markets would create greater incentives to ensure that countries that are forested can raise money through the market mechanism to out-compete alternate use and therefore preserve their forests without taking away their forests as a development tool,” Jagdeo said.

The Barbados government welcomed the agreement where “the world has taken a major step in the fight against the climate crisis”.

“We are one step closer to securing a better future for the generations to come,” said Prime Minister Mia Mottley. “As we celebrate this milestone of global commitment, I believe it is equally important that our focus sharpens on the challenges that lie beyond this commitment.”

She added: “We are going in the right direction, but we cannot take our eyes off the destination – a destination where financial barriers do not impede progress, where technology can be the catalyst for sustainability, and the ability to affordably access essential equipment is not a stumbling block but a stepping stone toward a resilient future.” (CMC)

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