As Dems name 15, experts fear ‘third party’ could split vote

The Democratic Labour Party’s announcement of its first 15 candidates for the next general election has been met with cautious optimism by two top political analysts. 

Political analysts Devaron Bruce and Peter Wickham have welcomed the initial slate of 15 candidates for the poll, constitutionally due in 2027. However, they cautioned that if rumours about former DLP leader Dr Ronnie Yearwood possibly forming a third party to contest the election are true, it could spell disaster for the DLP, potentially leaving them without any seats in Parliament once again.

While explaining to Barbados TODAY that the announcing of candidates is a normal act for any party seeking to gain or return to power, Bruce questioned the effectiveness of the chosen seats and candidates, in achieving meaningful parliamentary representation.

He said: “One would expect that a major political party would be able to name candidates, you are the party that are in essence saying you want to take government. But the reality is that where the party stands currently, it is whether these seats that we have seen announced for instance will do the party any [good] as it relates to returning to Parliament with any meaningful numerical representation.”

“What I find interesting is the absence of the political leader’s seat from the announcement,” he noted, referring to the fact that Opposition Leader Ralph Thorne, who represents Christ Church South – having won the seat on a Barbados Labour Party ticket before he crossed the floor in 2024 — did not reveal his candidacy intentions.

This was a point that Wickham also raised: “What struck me about that arrangement though is the glaring absence of any mention of the St Philip North scenario, and also no mention on where he [Ralph Thorne] plans to run. I thought those were two glaring absent omissions; one would have thought that he could have started by saying ‘I am the representative for Christ Church South and I will continue so to be,’ and that it is his intention to run there. Instead, he made no mention of the candidacy of Christ Church South.”

Responding to recent rumours of the possible formation of another party comprising former DLP members, Wickham emphasised that if this materialised, the DLP could face another whitewash at the polls.

The regional pollster said: “If Ronnie Yearwood forms a third party and runs it, he will guarantee that the Democratic Labour Party will be beaten soundly in the third occasion, and they are looking at another 30-love. That is my view. One of the easiest ways to ensure that the Democratic Labour Party does not get any seats in the next election is by Ronnie Yearwood running a third party.”

Bruce mirrored Wickham’s analysis: “Generally Barbadians do not seem to support third parties in any real major way, [however] two things can be correct at the same time. You have longstanding members [and] attractive members of the party who have left and have now headed in the direction from what it seems like as third parties. You have a [situation] where a weakened DLP, as opposed to a united one is now having to likely fend off its former members who were turned off by the behaviour of the party in 2024.”

The analyst stressed that while Thorne may want to present the current DLP as a united front, there has been significant negative attention towards the DLP due to the infighting, which may have hampered the choices for candidate positions.

“That is the danger with the problematic nature of the infighting that happened in 2024,” he explained. “You have a circumstance where the party is divided, and several individuals who may have been viable for the party, whether it be Ronnie Yearwood, whether it be Tricia Watson [etc], all of those individuals no longer exist within the party ranks. Therefore you are not left to pick up individuals who may not be as viable as other persons.”

Wickham, however, slightly differed in his view: “Among [the group] are people like Dr [David] Estwick who came very close to winning [in the 2022 general election]. If I can argue that Michael Lashley because of the fact that he came so close deserves a consideration for the DLP next time around, it’s reasonable then that I should also argue that Dr Estwick should be given similar considerations. That is the more optimistic way to look at it.”

He however said: “There are others like Richard Sealy . . . I am not sure what role Richard Sealy is playing in there, he also was soundly beaten twice and my sense is that his usefulness in politics is in serious question.”

Some of the announced candidates include former government ministers Dr Estwick (St Philip West) and Sealy (St Michael South Central), alongside returning candidates Senator Ryan Walters (St Michael North West), Pedro Shepherd (St Michael South East), Neil Marshall (St Philip South), and Senator Andre Worrell (St Michael Central). 

shamarblunt@barbadostoday.bb