A storm is coming, and we must be ready

It seems as if Caribbean economies can never catch a break; storms appear to be always looming, whether from natural disasters or policy decisions.

On the horizon is a potential economic maelstrom—the proposed US levy on Chinese-built ships. This port fee plan would charge operators between $500 000 and $1 million per US port call if they have Chinese-made vessels in their fleet, regardless of ship size.

So severe could be the impact that Prime Minister Mia Mottley, the current Chair of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), has already urged United States President Donald Trump to exempt the region from the tax. She warns that it could severely disrupt regional commerce, inflate import costs, and destabilise supply chains.

The issue was also a key agenda item when Mottley met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jamaica on Wednesday. She stated: “What we potentially face with the announced cess—levy, whatever you want to call it—on ships made in China will have serious and deleterious consequences for commerce not just for Barbados, not just for the Caribbean, but also for Florida.”

Earlier this week, the Atlantic Council and Tropical Shipping hosted a dialogue session with CARICOM Ambassadors and the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO) in Washington, DC, to assess the potential fallout for regional shipping.

CPSO CEO and Technical Director Dr Patrick Antoine highlighted the gravity of the situation, stating that the Caribbean impact could be far worse than the disruptions seen during COVID-19, when shipping costs temporarily skyrocketed.

He said: “If the proposals are advanced in the present form, the cost increases will be sustained for some time. Most of the sectors rely on companies operating at least one Chinese-built vessel. This would mean that, at the very least, a fine of US$1 million could apply per port call, but given how the USTR [United States Trade Representative] measures were proposed, the fines could reach as high as US$3.5 million where products of US origin are not carried in US-flagged and operated vessels.”

Lloyd’s List, a respected maritime news source, confirmed the warnings from both Mottley and Antoine. It noted that Caribbean islands, given their trade structures and port facilities, are served primarily by small container ships operated by US-based firms in Florida.

The Caribbean Shipowners Association (CSO)—which includes Crowley, Hybur, King Ocean, Seaboard Marine, and Tropical Shipping—operates 56 vessels in the region, ranging from 170 to 1 300 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).

A $1 million fee equates to $400 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for a 5 000 TEU vessel operating between major US ports; $2 000 per FEU for a 1 000 TEU ship in the Caribbean; and $4 000 per FEU for a 500 TEU ship.

What does all this mean? According to Lloyd’s List, Edward Gonzalez, Chief Executive of Seaboard Marine, warned that this new levy would put him out of business.

He estimated that CSO members would collectively face port fees of up to $69 million per week—or $3.6 billion per year—a figure that is five times the total gross revenue of CSO trade members in 2024.

Gonzalez stated: “It is self-evident that this enormous cost cannot be absorbed by the CSO members. If the proposal is implemented as drafted, the CSO members are faced with the choice of going out of business, passing the increased cost on to their customers, and/or radically changing the way they do business.”

Simply put, Caribbean consumers, already struggling with soaring food prices, will face even greater financial strain. Businesses will suffer, and jobs will be at risk. The entire region must push back to protect its survival.

Our plea for a CARICOM exemption is not a demand for special treatment but a recognition of our unique economic vulnerability. The United States must acknowledge the interdependence between Florida and the Caribbean. This proposed levy threatens the principles of fair trade and cooperation that the US claims to uphold. A blanket tariff that ignores the specific realities of vulnerable economies is both unjust and short-sighted.

The US has an opportunity to demonstrate true leadership by granting CARICOM an exemption. Doing so would not only protect the region’s economic stability but also reinforce the importance of mutually beneficial trade relationships.

Failure to act will leave a lasting scar on US-Caribbean relations and undermine the very principles of fair trade that the United States promotes.

The storm is coming, and we must prepare—not just for its immediate impact but for the lasting consequences.