Political pundits warn DLP must rebuild fast or risk demise

Political analysts are predicting a bleak future for the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), warning that only new leadership and a strategic overhaul can bring the 70-year-old political institution back from the brink of collapse.

One pundit is further anticipating that if the party fails to install a vibrant and appealing new leader by August, Prime Minister Mia Mottley could call a snap general election — a move that could push the DLP closer to collapse.

That assessment came in the wake of Wednesday’s by-election in St James North, which resulted in a massive defeat for the party’s candidate, Felicia Dujon, who scored only 468 votes to the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) flag-bearer Chad Blackman’s 2 723—or 84 per cent of the 3 231 ballots cast. Dujon’s votes fell 140 short of those won by the DLP candidate in the 2022 general election, Charles Worrell.

Political scientist Devaron Bruce suggested that everything went wrong with the DLP candidate’s campaign. Citing statistics that revealed underperformance by Dujon and her party losing ground, Bruce said the DLP should be gaining, and not losing, support at this juncture.

“So clearly, there was something wrong with the strategy; clearly, there was something wrong with the campaign; clearly, there was something wrong with the political party—because I have never seen a situation where, after seven years of defeat, a party still at this point should be losing support. So, there is something fundamentally wrong with what is happening with the Democratic Labour Party and they need to recognise it,” Bruce told Barbados TODAY.

Addressing the future of the DLP, he said: “The numbers are showing that the Democratic Labour Party will not do very well in the coming general elections, particularly based on what we saw [Wednesday night].”

He suggested that raising issues is not enough: “The party needs to revamp and go again and recognise how the public views it and what it has to do to appeal to the public. I am not sure if it is sufficient time to do that.”

Commenting on Blackman’s overwhelming victory, in a constituency in which the BLP historically does well, Bruce said: “I have not seen a performance like that for a first-time candidate, which is impressive. What is also interesting is the underperformance of Felicia Dujon. Dujon dropped by about five points from the last election. This is going to be problematic for the Democratic Labour Party . . . given that after seven years, the party has shown no improvement. That, I believe, is a major concern for the DLP in that Dujon would have been one of the party’s better candidates.”

He argued that while he did not expect Dujon to win, her performance was an indication of the problems faced by the DLP. Bruce attributed Blackman’s victory to the continued confidence people have in the BLP and Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s leadership.

“As a first-time candidate, Chad ought not to have received 85 per cent of the votes,” Bruce said. “Based on the fact that as a first-timer, you have not built the credibility, you have not spent a lot of time in the constituency, so, you would not have expected such a resounding performance of a candidate as a first-timer.”

Political scientist Dr George Brathwaite indicated that based on the trend of massive election losses by the DLP in the general elections of May 2018 and January 2022 and Wednesday’s by-election, the writing could be on the wall for the party formed by Errol Barrow in 1955.

“Right now, you have three DLP factions circulating in the public sphere. If it continues like that, they will get another 30-0…because, any sense that there is any rallying around the Democratic Labour Party, they are going to lose it…because, if you got three factions running in a general election, that means they are taking away DLP votes, not BLP. BLP is consolidating its vote,” Dr Brathwaite told Barbados TODAY.

“The future for that party is that…they [have] to get the young, vibrant leadership, somebody that they are prepared to rally behind that is young, energetic, that is a bridge between the generations…. They cannot do it with Thorne. He might be a likeable fellow, he might be an intelligent fellow, he is a good lawyer, you can say all those things about him, but he certainly is no organiser.”

Brathwaite was adamant that great organisers were needed in a party who can structure the base and get to it rally behind them. He said the absence of such an organiser in the DLP is its shortcoming: “If they don’t do it very quickly…and I am talking about by August, they are going to get Mottley calling an election, and they will be harpooned again. They really need to do that. You have to breathe new life into the Democratic Labour Party, otherwise it will die an arrogant and natural death.”

Political scientist Dr Kristina Hinds echoed the positions of her colleagues that the DLP has much work to do, including securing a leader who can attract the widest cross section of age groups, in order to be a viable alternative government.

“You have to appeal to a larger segment of the society than, I think, the party and its leader currently have. In this part of the world, we associate the party with their leader—-the image that that person has, what that person says, their approach; all of these things are really important to us. We still like the Messianic leader,” Dr Hinds told Barbados TODAY.

She pointed out that Prime Minister Mottley is a “huge personality” who is “extremely charismatic.” But the university lecturer suggested that Thorne, or whoever succeeds him, needs to find a way to make themselves attractive nationally, without trying to copy Mottley.

She added: “Making themselves, in their own way, attractive enough to speak to sufficient people to pull them towards the Democratic Labour Party, and I think this has to be across various age groups.”

Dr Hinds cautioned that the underperformance of Dujon is not a good sign for the DLP’s future.

She said the BLP political campaign was superior to that of the DLP regarding things such as “clear and consistent messaging”, and being better resourced and better organised.

“I would say that it offers us some insight into what the parties need to do for a coming general election,” Dr Hinds continued. “I would say the Barbados Labour Party needs to continue its momentum if it wants to be successful again, and I am sure it does, but the Democratic Labour Party has a lot of work to do to attract financial resources, to attract human resources, the right people for its candidates, as well as to assist with the ground campaign. And, of course, they have the question surrounding policy and what the DLP stands for in 2025 and going forward.”

Political scientist and pollster Peter Wickham said of the DLP’s future that it has some serious problems which he suggests the party may not realise.

Wickham said the DLP believes its problem of being in office can be solved by claiming that democracy is under threat just because the BLP continues to record overwhelming victories, and by highlighting the shortcomings of the Mottley administration.

“The reality is that these election results tell me that people may well have issues with the Barbados Labour Party, but I think that their greater concern is about the viability of the DLP. They have some major issues that they need to address. But I don’t believe that they have even started the process of beginning to understand the nature of the problem,” the pollster told Barbados TODAY.

“When I listened to Ralph Thorne and Felicia Dujon speaking after the results, it was clear they are at sea regarding what they need to be able to do to fix this thing…which basically means that history might repeat itself again; and it’s a frightening thought that this will continue to happen until the Democratic Labour Party realises that you are not going to get a government given to you, you have to work for it.”

emmanueljoseph@barbadostoday.bb