National Hurricane Centre: 70 per cent chance of Atlantic system developing

A tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic has a 70 per cent chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days, according to the latest outlook from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The system, currently located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity but is expected to encounter more favourable conditions for development over the next several days.

The NHC says a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week as the system tracks westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

The system has a 30 per cent chance of formation within 48 hours, with that probability increasing to 70 per cent through seven days.

The NHC is also monitoring a separate tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands.

The disturbance is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms, but significant development is not expected as the system encounters a large area of dry air while approaching the Lesser Antilles.

The NHC puts the chance of formation at near zero per cent over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days.

Despite the low development potential the wave, it said, could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to parts of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.

A third disturbance, a trough of low pressure several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, also has a 10 per cent chance of developing over the next seven days.

The system is expected to move eastward at about 20 mph and reach cooler waters later this week, where conditions will become less favourable for tropical development.