The population of Barbados will begin to shrink in the next 14 years, before peaking at around 300,000 in another 15 years, according to United Nations projections.
According to the World Population Review, which bases its data on the revised United Nations World Population Prospects 2019, Barbados is ranked as the 17th most densely populated country in the world but 183rd in population size.
“Barbados is the fourth-most densely populated country in the Americas . . . and it is ranked as the 10th most populous island nation in the region,” said the World Population Review.
The population is estimated at about 287,711 people up to July.
Estimating a current growth rate of about 0.13 per cent this year, the data suggested that the growth rate would slow to a mere 0.04 per cent by 2030 when the population should reach just about 289,444.
But by 2035, the population should start to shrink at an estimated rate of -0.04 per cent, according to the UN review.
“Barbados is not growing rapidly, but it is growing,” the document cited.
The data, which is based on several factors including fertility rate, overall mortality and migration, said the rate of decrease in the population is expected to increase every five years, with the population size reaching around 220,700 by the year 2095.
The current median age of the population is 38.6 years, with the median age for males being 37.5 years and for females 39.8 years.
Barbados, which is classified as a small island developing state and a high-income country, is known to share the unique distinction with Japan as having the highest per capita number of centenarians. It is also estimated that there are just over 228,940 people over the age of 18 on the island.
Pundits in Bridgetown have long raised concerns about the island’s dwindling population size and what it could mean for National Insurance Scheme (NIS) sustainability in years to come.
Prime Minister Mia Mottley has been a vocal advocate for an increase in the population.
A year ago, she said: “We have discovered that Barbados has not replaced its population since 1980 and that our labour force in 15 years, in 2035, will be smaller than it is now if we do nothing now to change the direction in which it is going.”
At the time, she threw out a challenge to actuaries to lead discussions on the likely impact the dwindling population in Barbados and the region could have on national insurance.
Earlier this month while addressing the business community, Mottley also hinted at future changes to the Barbados Welcome Stamp Initiative to help boost the population.
“We captured the world’s attention with the Welcome Stamp, but it is now time to tweak that further in order to be able to recognise that the combination of factors that lies before us strategically with respect to a diminishing population and the need for greater long-stay tourism, creates an opportunity for us to rethink the visitor and hospitality economy in fundamental ways,” she told the recent Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry luncheon. marlonmadden@barbadostoday.bb
