#BTEditorial – Cautious yet quietly optimistic

Christmas 2021 could possibly be one that brings great joy for some and for others, it is likely to be one of anxiety.

The hopes of Barbados’ business community are likely to rise or fall on the performance of the Barbados economy and the response of consumers over the few remaining weeks of this tumultuous year.

Traditionally, the peak season for our tourism sector, all indicators are suggesting that demand for the Barbados tourism product is high at this time, with the greatest interest coming from our important United Kingdom market.

December 15 to April is regarded as our lucrative winter tourist season. There is no doubt that hoteliers, villa owners and others in the accommodation sector are hungry for guests and the Brits have proven to be reliable, long-staying visitors, and most important, big spenders.

Currently, the British pound has an exchange rate of BDS$2.66. This is still reasonably good and will make a Barbados trip more affordable. Admittedly, it is a long way from the glory days when the pound sterling was worth more than BDS$3.00 making a trip to the island a much more cost-effective getaway.

Thankfully, many of our British guests tend to be on the wealthier side and a trip here for the snowbirds is an aspirational undertaking.

But the British demand for Barbados’ tourism product can cut both ways in the age of a wily coronavirus pandemic that seems as unpredictable as our West Indies team.

There were many moments over the past two years when we and others around the world believed science had beaten this virus, or that it had run its course and was about to fizzle into oblivion.

The global population has received no such respite. What the COVID-19 virus has done is recreate itself in deadlier and much more contagious formations. 

As was the case with the Delta variant, the Omicron variant has cast a long shadow over Christmas and year-end holiday plans. Given the uncertainty surrounding this new variant, first isolated in South Africa, but is now present in Europe, Australia, North America and South America, chances are it will be on our shores very soon.

With local enterprises and the tourism sector barely experiencing a recovery after such a long hiatus, it must be disconcerting to be faced with the prospect of increased infections, more restrictions, and further business disruptions.

The World Health Organisation (WHO), which has been leading the global response to this disease, has named the Omicron variant, identified as B.1.1.529, a “variant of concern”.

The global institution said it made the decision based on the evidence that Omicron has several mutations that may have an impact on how it behaves, for example, on how easily it spreads or the severity of illness it causes.

According to WHO: “It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible (e.g., more easily spread from person to person) compared to other variants, including Delta. The number of people testing positive has risen in areas of South Africa affected by this variant, but epidemiologic studies are underway to understand if it is because of Omicron or other factors.”

What this situation presents for us in Barbados is increased uncertainty and the possibility that strategic planning that will be occurring in Government, particularly in the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Tourism and International Transport, could be hobbled.

With the year-end explosion of infections of 2020 still fresh in our memories, it will be difficult and ill-advised to not exercise a great degree of caution over the holiday season.

For the Minister of Tourism, Senator Lisa Cummins, it will be another trial for the young member of Cabinet who has had to confront a series of challenges in her portfolio that would have tested even the most experienced of her colleagues.

Her comments regarding Barbados’ response to the Omicron variant and the fact that she carries the success or failure of this all-important sector on her shoulders, suggest she is positioning for an outcome that could go well or it could go bust.

As expected, the Minister remains optimistic, as she should. Too much of our economic future depends on at least a positive performance in the sector.

She places much confidence in the country’s health services.

“I trust the Ministry of Health to guide us, based on CARPHA (Caribbean Public Health Agency), the World Health Organisation and international health guidelines, as they have done with everything else.

“The Ministry of Health has done an exemplary job over all of this time. They have kept our borders safe; they have kept our people safe as best as they have control over that.”

For the sake of the new republic, we also hope our medical teams can continue to protect us.