We have just passed the first quarter of 2020. Now a day of reckoning is fast approaching when our economic planners will have to reveal just how much damage has been inflicted on the Barbados economy by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We know it’s not going to be pretty, but we want to learn the details of the post-pandemic rescue plan.
This week, a total of 22 million Americans sought state assistance through unemployment benefits. Market watchers are predicting the once record-low US unemployment rate will rise to a 90-year high of 25 per cent. At home, Prime Minister Mia Mottley has told us that since mid-March, more than 14,000 Barbadians applied to the National Insurance Scheme (NIS) for help.
This brings us to the Central Bank of Barbados, which is expected to report this month on the state of the economy for the first quarter. Governor Cleviston Haynes is not a man to be envied at the moment. He will have to deliver the unvarnished facts on how far things have deteriorated.
And what a stark difference this April will be from Haynes’ last quarter report when there was so much hope and anticipation.
But alas, as the poet T.S. Eliot warns, this fourth of the year can portend no great expectation: “April is the cruellest month, breeding Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire….”
When the new year unfolded, we joined Barbadians at home and abroad in our anticipation of what We Gatherin’ 2020 could do to help boost the economy. Standard & Poor’s had just lifted our credit rating from the underbelly of ratings to a celebrated B- with a stable outlook.
Mottley’s senior economic advisor and the once-expected heir apparent to the Central Bank throne Dr Kevin Greenidge was enthusiastic. “The upgrade is quite an achievement, particularly as the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) Programme was only just a year old,” he said.
Governor Haynes lifted our spirits when he predicted the Barbados economy would expand by between 1.25 per cent and 1.75 per cent in 2020. It was not the greatest movement but it spoke to budding potential after several years of austerity and recession.
He said: “This positive outlook hinges on continued growth in tourism and the recovery of private investment. Special events, including We Gatherin’ Barbados and the 15th UNCTAD quadrennial conference, should boost the tourism and ancillary sectors and complement the activity related to the investment projects that are expected to start during the year.
“The overall pace of activity will be influenced by the start-up date of these projects. Investors are finalising plans in several cases and obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals. Implementation of several of these projects is multi-year in scope and this should enhance medium-term growth prospects by enhancing Barbados’ competitive capacity.”
The citizens of Barbados are bracing for what’s to come. Their current reality does not require much more examination. It requires a plan of action. We know it is not going to be an easy path to recovery when executive director of the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association Senator Rudy Grant tells us that eight of ten hotel workers are jobless in tourism’s worst-ever crisis.
So there is no pretending how deep this country’s economic troubles run. Taxis are parked next to the homes of owners, Transport Board buses are running virtually empty, our savings are running low and credit cards are maxing out.
We do not envy the leaders, technocrats and planners. The road will be tough. Barbadians, we believe, will understand that COVID-19’s onslaught cannot be fixed overnight. Still, we anxiously await the plan to dig us out of the morass.
God knows it will take more than a hope and a prayer.
